Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #76
37%
VS

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Rank: #61
63%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 37.0
ELO Rating: 1630.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1652.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.4
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 19.5
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 93.1

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 1571.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1626.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 16.2
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Kamil Majchrzak

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kamil Majchrzak
vs
0
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In Hamburg, Germany, on clay in the Round of 32 of this 500-level event, this matchup pits Kamil Majchrzak against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The model favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli to advance (63.26% vs 36.74%), with a predicted total of 26.94 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Majchrzak arrives as world No. 76 with an Elo of 1630.34 and a strong mean return index (93.05) alongside a very solid mean serve reading (95.22). He shows a low cumulative fatigue and a modest surface strength index on clay (9.32), which suggests he is not at his best historically on this surface despite good recent serving and returning metrics. Carabelli, ranked 61, carries a slightly lower Elo at 1571.80 but a higher clay surface strength index (16.21), and comparable serving numbers (mean serve 95.52). Both players are fresh for this fixture with zero minutes of fatigue from the event. Form over the last three matches is mixed for each. Majchrzak has one win (against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in Marrakech) and two losses, including a straight-sets exit to Marco Trungelliti and a loss to Quentin Halys; his recent clay matches have been competitive but inconsistent. Carabelli also shows volatility: two tight three-set losses in Rome and Madrid were sandwiched around a notable straight-sets win over Gaël Monfils, indicating he can raise his level on clay but has struggled for consistency at bigger events.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kamil Majchrzak - Camilo Ugo Carabelli) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Camilo Ugo Carabelli wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Positive values indicate Kamil Majchrzak winning more games, negative values indicate Camilo Ugo Carabelli winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is modest — a predicted aces total of 9.34 — while the double faults prediction sits at an expected double faults figure of 4.86. Clay’s slower pace and higher bounce typically reduce ace opportunities and can increase unforced serving errors late in rallies, so the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect those surface effects. With both players showing similar serve indices, neither should dominate the ace count purely on serve power.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.3 Most likely: 9 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Kamil Majchrzak versus Camilo Ugo Carabelli. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kamil Majchrzak's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (40.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Kamil Majchrzak's perspective. Format: BO3.

Final Prediction

Carabelli’s edge comes from a better clay surface index and slightly more favorable recent outcomes at bigger clay events, which tilts the projection his way. Key factor to watch: who can convert return opportunities early — breaking serve in the opening sets will likely decide this short (≈27-game) encounter.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel