Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s projection is shaped by competing signals: the strongest single factor is the serve & return game, which the model credits to Majchrzak (7.7 percentage points), but Felix gains ground from recent results at tour level (a 7.2-point boost) and overall strength. Majchrzak’s serve/return edge in the model appears linked to his two wins on grass this week (against Virtanen and McCabe), demonstrating effective play on the surface despite a lower season profile. Felix’s advantage comes from higher rank (No. 4 vs 76), a superior Elo (1814.7 vs 1605.8), a stronger form index (48.15 vs 38.14) and a higher surface strength index (30.44 vs 21.36), all of which pushed the prediction toward him. Looking at match-load and recent form: Felix arrives with zero minutes of tournament fatigue in this event, while Majchrzak has accumulated 197 minutes, a relevant disparity on quick grass where sharpness matters. Both players carry high serve indices (Felix 96.6, Majchrzak 94.6) and comparable return indices (Felix 89.7, Majchrzak 87.7); differences are notable but not beyond the model’s 5-point threshold. Over the last three matches Felix recorded two wins then a loss at Roland Garros, whereas Majchrzak has two straight grass wins here after a clay loss at Roland Garros.