Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Kamil Majchrzak vs Jacob Fearnley: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #59
48%
VS

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #74
52%
Expected Total Games: 38.3
Predicted Winner: Jacob Fearnley

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Ranking Trends

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #59 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #70 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #90 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #122 2025-01-13

Jacob Fearnley

  • Current #74 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #55 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #68 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #92 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 882.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1555.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.9
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 7.9
Serve Rating: 57.6
Return Rating: 68.4

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 30.3
ELO Rating: 684.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.0
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 19.1
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 96.5

Recent Matches

Kamil Majchrzak
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) hard Brisbane 132 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Reilly Opelka (2-1) hard Brisbane 149 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) hard Brisbane 82 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (1-2) hard Brisbane 121 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cruz Hewitt (2-0) hard Brisbane 83 min

Jacob Fearnley
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kamil Majchrzak
vs
0
Jacob Fearnley
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Kamil Majchrzak and Jacob Fearnley in the Round of 128 at the Australian Open promises to be closely contested on hard courts. With a slight edge, Jacob Fearnley is predicted to win with a probability of 51.62%, while Kamil Majchrzak has a 48.38% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 38.3.

Match Analysis

Kamil Majchrzak, currently ranked 59, shows a form index of 41.74 and an Elo rating of 882.20. His fatigue level is at 0.0, indicating he is fresh in this tournament. His surface strength index of 5.91 suggests he may not be fully optimized for hard court play, although his mean serve index stands at 57.64. In contrast, Jacob Fearnley, ranked 74, presents a different profile with a lower form index of 30.26 and an Elo rating of 684.46. He also shows a surface strength index of 17.99 and an impressive mean serve index of 97.28, indicating significant serving capability. Notably, Fearnley's mean return index of 96.54 is considerably higher than Majchrzak's 68.36, highlighting an advantage in return games. In their recent performances, Majchrzak has shown resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, including a notable victory against Reilly Opelka. However, he fell short against Daniil Medvedev in his last match, losing after a hard-fought battle. Fearnley, on the other hand, has faced challenges, losing the last two matches despite a win against Christopher O'Connell three matches ago. This inconsistency may affect his confidence heading into the match against Majchrzak.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.3 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kamil Majchrzak - Jacob Fearnley) +2.4 Most likely spread: +2 (Kamil Majchrzak wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Expectations for aces in this match are set around 18.9, reflecting the strengths both players bring to their serves on hard courts, which typically yield a moderate number of aces. With Fearnley's significantly higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute more to this expected aces prediction. Additionally, the expected double faults are estimated at 5.66, which could be influenced by both players’ serving styles and pressure during the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.9 Most likely: 18 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jacob Fearnley holds a slight advantage with a superior serve and return index, which could play a pivotal role in his performance. Watch for his returning capabilities, as this could be a key factor in determining the match outcome. If Fearnley can capitalize on his service games while minimizing errors, he may secure the victory.

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