Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Khachanov enters with a clear ranking and rating advantage (rank 16, Elo ~2001) over Shevchenko (rank 92, Elo ~682). Form indexes also favor Khachanov (57.17 vs 48.39). Fatigue is another differentiator: Shevchenko has accumulated 178 minutes on court in this event while Khachanov shows 0 minutes of tournament fatigue. Surface strength indexes are modest for both, but Khachanov’s is higher (12.30 vs 4.95). The difference in mean serve index is substantial (Khachanov 97.48 vs Shevchenko 69.23), and the mean return index gap is likewise large (Khachanov 90.18 vs Shevchenko 49.91), both exceeding the 5-point threshold and pointing to a pronounced serving and returning edge for Khachanov. Looking at recent results, Shevchenko is 1–2 in his last three matches: a straight-sets win over Nikoloz Basilashvili, and losses to Quentin Halys and Learner Tien, including a long 174-minute match at the Australian Open. Khachanov is coming off two wins in Doha (Fucsovics, Mochizuki) before a competitive three-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz, showing consistent form through three matches with lower time-on-court in this event.