Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Alexander Shevchenko

Rank: #92
27%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #16
73%
Expected Total Games: 23.4
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Ranking Trends

Alexander Shevchenko

  • Current Rank: #92 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #96 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #91 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #103 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #95 (2025-02-24)

Karen Khachanov

  • Current Rank: #16 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #18 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #9 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #24 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #24 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Alexander Shevchenko

Form Index: 48.4
ELO Rating: 682.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1581.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 178.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.9
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 69.2
Return Rating: 49.9

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 57.2
ELO Rating: 2001.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1736.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.3
Clay: 18.9
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

Alexander Shevchenko
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (0-2) hard Dubai 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-0) hard Dubai 77 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Ugo Humbert (0-1) hard Adelaide 57 min

Karen Khachanov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (1-2) hard Doha 146 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-1) hard Doha 121 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (2-1) hard Doha 115 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (1-2) hard Rotterdam 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-1) hard Rotterdam 143 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexander Shevchenko
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dubai, U.A.E., is played on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event and pairs Alexander Shevchenko against Karen Khachanov. The model favors Khachanov to win (72.83% probability) over Shevchenko (27.17%), with a predicted total of about 23.44 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Khachanov enters with a clear ranking and rating advantage (rank 16, Elo ~2001) over Shevchenko (rank 92, Elo ~682). Form indexes also favor Khachanov (57.17 vs 48.39). Fatigue is another differentiator: Shevchenko has accumulated 178 minutes on court in this event while Khachanov shows 0 minutes of tournament fatigue. Surface strength indexes are modest for both, but Khachanov’s is higher (12.30 vs 4.95). The difference in mean serve index is substantial (Khachanov 97.48 vs Shevchenko 69.23), and the mean return index gap is likewise large (Khachanov 90.18 vs Shevchenko 49.91), both exceeding the 5-point threshold and pointing to a pronounced serving and returning edge for Khachanov. Looking at recent results, Shevchenko is 1–2 in his last three matches: a straight-sets win over Nikoloz Basilashvili, and losses to Quentin Halys and Learner Tien, including a long 174-minute match at the Australian Open. Khachanov is coming off two wins in Doha (Fucsovics, Mochizuki) before a competitive three-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz, showing consistent form through three matches with lower time-on-court in this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.4 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is modest: the model’s predicted aces total is 6.72, and the double faults prediction (expected double faults) is 4.11. Hard courts usually produce a balanced number of aces — more than clay but fewer than grass — and Khachanov’s very high serve index suggests he will drive the bulk of the predicted aces. Given the serve disparity, the predicted aces and double faults figures reflect an advantage in free points from Khachanov’s service.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Khachanov’s superior serve and return metrics, higher Elo and fresher legs give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Khachanov can convert his serving strength into free points and keep pressure on Shevchenko’s service games.

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