Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 64

Shintaro Mochizuki vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Shintaro Mochizuki

Rank: #144
16%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #20
84%
Expected Total Games: 36.0
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

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Ranking Trends

Shintaro Mochizuki

  • Current #144 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #149 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #235 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #145 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #141 2024-07-01

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #20 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #26 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #19 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #25 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #22 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Shintaro Mochizuki

Form Index: 78.7
ELO Rating: 454.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.3
Clay: 4.2
Grass: 3.9
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 90.2

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 72.3
ELO Rating: 1816.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1746.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.6
Clay: 18.8
Grass: 16.8
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 85.0

Recent Matches

Shintaro Mochizuki
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Karen Khachanov
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Shintaro Mochizuki
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at Wimbledon, Shintaro Mochizuki faces Karen Khachanov on the grass courts of Great Britain. The match is expected to be challenging for Mochizuki, with Khachanov favored to win at a probability of 83.63%. Mochizuki's chances sit at 16.37%, with a predicted total of 36 games played.

Match Analysis

Shintaro Mochizuki currently ranks 144th, with a form index of 78.73 and an Elo rating of 454.54. His cumulative fatigue of 696 minutes indicates he has had a strenuous tournament thus far. On grass, his surface strength index stands at 3.89, reflecting challenges on this fast surface. In contrast, Karen Khachanov, ranked 20th, boasts a form index of 72.31 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1816.38. His fatigue level is much lower at 174 minutes, and he possesses a strong surface strength index of 16.80. Notably, Khachanov's mean serve index of 95.37 surpasses Mochizuki's by 0.38 points, while his return index of 85.04 is also stronger by over 5 points. In their last three matches, Mochizuki has demonstrated resilience, winning all but one set across his victories, including a recent five-set thriller against Giulio Zeppieri. However, Khachanov has shown dominance in his last match against Mackenzie McDonald, winning in straight sets, although he faced a challenging defeat against Alexander Bublik in Halle.

Final Prediction

Karen Khachanov has a distinct edge due to his higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and significantly lower fatigue level. His strong serving and returning capabilities will likely play a key role in the match. Observers should watch for Khachanov's ability to capitalize on Mochizuki's fatigue and pressure him with powerful serves.

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