Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov Prediction

Tomas Machac

Rank: #72
25%
VS

Karen Khachanov

Rank: #25
75%
Expected Total Games: 24.8
Predicted Winner: Karen Khachanov

Why the Model Favors Karen Khachanov

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +5.7 Karen Khachanov
Recent record by level +5.3 Karen Khachanov
Overall strength +4.4 Karen Khachanov
Surface fit +3.6 Karen Khachanov
Serve & return game +3.6 Karen Khachanov

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Karen Khachanov. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Tomas Machac

  • Current #72 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #53 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #41 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #24 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #31 2025-10-20

Karen Khachanov

  • Current #25 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #26 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #16 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 30.8
ELO Rating: 1638.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1730.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 62.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.6
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 88.0

Karen Khachanov

Form Index: 60.8
ELO Rating: 1865.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1767.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 75.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.1
Clay: 26.2
Grass: 30.1
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Zangar Nurlanuly (2-0) hard Almaty 62 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Bublik (0-2) hard Shanghai 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 130 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) hard Beijing 63 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Gea (0-2) hard Beijing 77 min

Karen Khachanov
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Karen Khachanov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Karen Khachanov is a clear favourite, with the forecast giving him 75% to Tomas Machac’s 25% and projecting 24.8 total games. Both won their Almaty openers in straight sets, but Khachanov has the stronger broader profile heading into this Round of 16 match.

Match Analysis

Khachanov’s higher ranking, 25th to 72nd, reflects a sizeable advantage in overall strength, and his recent-form profile is markedly better. Both won their Almaty openers in straight sets, while their latest Shanghai outings were losses, to Alex de Minaur for Khachanov and Alexander Bublik for Machac. The hard court also favours Khachanov, whose surface fit is stronger. Their serve and return profiles are close, so there is no glaring technical mismatch. The main separation is Khachanov’s stronger standing and recent form.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.8 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Tomas Machac - Karen Khachanov) -3.0 Most likely spread: -4 (Karen Khachanov wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Khachanov is projected for 8.3 aces and 2.2 double faults, against 6.4 aces and 2.7 double faults for Machac. Their serve profiles are almost level, making the projected ace gap modest, with Khachanov expected to produce a few more.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.2 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Tomas Machac 6.4 + Karen Khachanov 8.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Tomas Machac 2.7 + Karen Khachanov 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Tomas Machac

Expected 6.4 aces

Karen Khachanov

Expected 8.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Tomas Machac

Expected 2.7 double faults

Karen Khachanov

Expected 2.2 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Tomas Machac's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (50.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Machac’s slightly stronger return profile is a counterweight to Khachanov’s advantages. If he can turn it into pressure on Khachanov’s service games, he has a way to narrow the forecast gap.

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