Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Matteo Berrettini vs Kyrian Jacquet Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #43
58%
VS

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #85
42%
Expected Total Games: 25.5
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

Why the Model Favors Matteo Berrettini

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +4.3 Matteo Berrettini
Recent form +3.4 Matteo Berrettini
Overall strength +2.1 Matteo Berrettini
Age +1.6 Kyrian Jacquet
Surface fit +1.6 Kyrian Jacquet

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 58% for Matteo Berrettini. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #43 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #42 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #92 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #57 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #59 2025-10-20

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Current #85 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #134 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #151 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #128 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #151 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 40.4
ELO Rating: 1695.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1710.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.5
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 13.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 56.9
ELO Rating: 1673.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1713.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.5
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 94.7
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Kyrian Jacquet
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Mmoh (1-0) hard Marseille 54 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-0) hard Marseille 80 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Rei Sakamoto (1-2) hard Shanghai 166 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Tianhui Zhang (2-0) hard Shanghai 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (0-2) hard Tokio 100 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Kyrian Jacquet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Berrettini is a narrow favourite, at 58% to Jacquet’s 42%, with 25.5 games expected. Jacquet’s two wins in Marseille give this Round of 32 match a live underdog threat.

Match Analysis

Berrettini’s stronger record by competitive level and overall standing tip the forecast his way. He is ranked 43rd, compared with Jacquet at 85th, and his serve is the stronger of the two. Jacquet has already beaten Michael Mmoh and Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg in Marseille, and his return game is marginally stronger. That recent run and his hard-court fit offer a counterweight, though Berrettini’s recent results have been mixed, including a loss to Brandon Nakashima.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.5 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Berrettini - Kyrian Jacquet) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Berrettini is projected to hit 9.2 aces, with Jacquet at 6.1. Berrettini’s stronger serve supports the higher ace estimate, while Jacquet is projected for slightly more double faults, 2.4 to 2.0.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.7 Most likely: 13 aces Per player: Matteo Berrettini 9.2 + Kyrian Jacquet 6.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Matteo Berrettini 2.0 + Kyrian Jacquet 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 9.2 aces

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 6.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 2.0 double faults

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Berrettini's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (33.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jacquet’s slightly stronger return gives him a clear way to challenge the forecast. If he can put pressure on Berrettini’s serve, the narrow prediction could swing.

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