Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 16

Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Daniil Medvedev

Rank: #12
59%
VS

Learner Tien

Rank: #27
41%
Expected Total Games: 36.7
Predicted Winner: Daniil Medvedev

Player Metrics

Daniil Medvedev

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 2710.2
Glicko2 Rating: 2008.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 21.0
Serve Rating: 72.1
Return Rating: 54.8

Learner Tien

Form Index: 96.2
ELO Rating: 1523.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1563.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 48.0
Clay: 33.2
Grass: 34.6
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Daniil Medvedev

  • Last Match: vs Fabian Marozsan (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) hard Brisbane 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (2-0) hard Brisbane 102 min

Learner Tien

  • Last Match: vs Nuno Borges (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) hard Brisbane 75 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Brisbane 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Daniil Medvedev
vs
1
Learner Tien
Hard
1 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 at the 2026 Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev is set to face Learner Tien on hard courts in Australia. With Medvedev holding a slight edge, the predicted winner is Daniil Medvedev with a probability of 59.31% compared to Tien's 40.69%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.68.

Match Analysis

Daniil Medvedev, ranked 12th, boasts a form index of 100.0, indicating peak performance. His Elo rating stands at 2710, with a cumulative fatigue of 522 minutes from the current tournament. Medvedev's surface strength index of 13.68 suggests he is still finding his footing on hard courts, but his mean serve index of 72.14 indicates he can deliver strong serves. In contrast, Learner Tien, ranked 27th, has a slightly lower form index of 96.24 and an Elo rating of 1523. Tien's surface strength index is significantly higher at 47.98, along with a mean serve index of 97.00, showcasing his proficiency in serving on hard surfaces. The notable difference in their mean serve indices, with Tien ahead by nearly 25 points, could play a crucial role in the match. Both players have shown impressive form in their last three matches at the Australian Open. Medvedev has won all his matches convincingly, with a perfect score against his opponents, while Tien has also demonstrated strong performances, winning all his matches, including a clean sweep against Nuno Borges in the last round. This consistency from both players sets the stage for a competitive encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.7 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 15.92 aces, with both players capable of strong serving due to the hard court surface, which tends to favor balanced serve statistics. The predicted total of approximately 5.94 double faults suggests that while both players may struggle with unforced errors at times, their serving capabilities should dominate the match. Given Tien's significantly higher mean serve index, he may be more likely to contribute to the aces prediction.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Daniil Medvedev is predicted to have the upper hand due to his higher experience level and recent performances, despite Tien's impressive serve. A key factor to watch will be Medvedev's ability to capitalize on Tien's potential double faults and how effectively he can return serves against Tien's strong serve.

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