Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Learner Tien vs Reilly Opelka Prediction

Learner Tien

Rank: #70
52%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #94
48%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Learner Tien

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Ranking Trends

Learner Tien

  • Current #70 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #81 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #121 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #232 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #430 2024-05-06

Reilly Opelka

  • Current #94 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #145 2025-02-03
  • 6 mo ago #295 2024-11-04
  • 9 mo ago #324 2024-08-05
  • 12 mo ago #1165 2024-05-06

Player Metrics

Learner Tien

Form Index: 31.2
ELO Rating: 934.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.5
Clay: 4.6
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 90.0

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 37.7
ELO Rating: 863.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.1
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 3.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 82.9

Recent Matches

Learner Tien
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Marcos Giron (1-2) clay Madrid 127 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) clay Munich 71 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) clay Munich 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Henri Squire (2-1) clay Munich 102 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Michelsen (0-2) clay Houston 70 min

Reilly Opelka
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-2) clay Madrid 106 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (2-0) clay Madrid 125 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (0-2) clay Barcelona 70 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Miami 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Holger Rune (2-1) hard Miami 123 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Learner Tien
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Learner Tien faces off against Reilly Opelka on clay. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Tien slightly favored to win, holding a 52.19% probability compared to Opelka's 47.81%. The predicted total number of games played is 24.0, indicating a competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Learner Tien, ranked 70, comes into this match with a form index of 31.15 and an Elo rating of 934.50. He possesses a surface strength index of 4.58, reflecting his adaptability on clay. Notably, Tien's mean return index stands at 90.03, showcasing his strong return game. In contrast, Reilly Opelka, ranked 94, has a higher mean serve index of 97.49, which is significant given the 5-point gap. However, his surface strength index of 3.38 indicates he may struggle more on clay compared to Tien. Both players currently have no cumulative fatigue, suggesting they are fresh for this encounter. Analyzing their recent performances, Tien has faced difficulties, losing his last two matches, including a recent three-set battle against Marcos Giron. In contrast, Opelka managed a win against Rinky Hijikata but fell to both Khachanov and Tsitsipas in his other recent matches. This inconsistency may play a crucial role in the upcoming match, as Tien's ability to return serves effectively could exploit Opelka's vulnerabilities on clay.

Final Prediction

Learner Tien's slight edge in return game and overall adaptability on clay gives him a favorable position in this matchup against Opelka. The key factor to watch will be Tien's effectiveness in handling Opelka's powerful serve; if he can neutralize it, he stands a strong chance of advancing in the tournament.

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