Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Tsitsipas arrives ranked 75 with a form index of 44.95 and an Elo of 1680.25; he carries 93 minutes of court time in this event and shows a stronger surface strength index for clay (23.60) than his opponent. Tien is the higher-ranked player at 21, with a slightly lower form index (42.74) but a superior Elo (1765.41) and no accumulated fatigue in the tournament so far. Both players possess similarly high serving and returning profiles—Tsitsipas’ mean serve index (96.21) and mean return index (89.58) sit marginally ahead of Tien’s serve (94.65) and return (87.51), but not by a wide enough margin to be decisive on those metrics alone. Looking at recent results, Tsitsipas has shown mixed clay form: a straight-sets win in Geneva over Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, bookended by losses to Tomas Machac (Rome) and a long, draining three-set match against Casper Ruud (Madrid). Tien’s recent slate in Rome includes two wins—over Alexander Bublik and Damir Dzumhur—followed by a loss to Rafael Jodar; that sequence suggests momentum but with a late setback. The combination of Tien’s higher Elo and fresher legs helps explain the model’s edge in this matchup.