Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Lorenzo Musetti vs Holger Rune Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti

Rank: #9
51%
VS

Holger Rune

Rank: #10
49%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Musetti

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Musetti

  • Current #9 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #17 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #17 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #18 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #30 2024-05-27

Holger Rune

  • Current #10 2025-05-05
  • 3 mo ago #13 2025-02-24
  • 6 mo ago #13 2024-11-25
  • 9 mo ago #15 2024-08-26
  • 12 mo ago #13 2024-05-27

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Musetti

Form Index: 84.6
ELO Rating: 2813.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1728.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.1
Clay: 23.9
Grass: 23.1
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.3

Holger Rune

Form Index: 80.5
ELO Rating: 2513.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1856.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 18.2
Clay: 20.7
Grass: 24.0
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 85.0

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Musetti
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Holger Rune
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Musetti
vs
1
Holger Rune
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 16 match at Roland Garros features Lorenzo Musetti and Holger Rune competing on clay. Both players are in strong form, but Musetti is slightly favored to win with a probability of 50.92%, while Rune's chances stand at 49.08%. The predicted total number of games played is 38.0, indicating a potentially competitive clash.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Musetti, currently ranked 9th, boasts a strong form index of 84.60 and an Elo rating of 2813.69, showcasing his ability to compete at a high level. His surface strength index of 23.88 reflects his proficiency on clay, and he possesses a mean serve index of 97.10, which is superior to Rune's mean serve index of 95.65, highlighting a difference that could impact service games. Meanwhile, Musetti's return index of 88.35 also exceeds Rune's return index of 85.04, suggesting he may have an advantage in returning serves effectively. In their recent matches at the tournament, Musetti has demonstrated solid performance, winning all three of his matches without dropping more than one set in any of them. Rune, ranked 10th, has also shown resilience, winning his last three matches but experienced a more challenging contest in his latest match against Quentin Halys, where he lost two sets. Both players have accumulated the same level of fatigue with 522 minutes on court, which could play a role in their stamina during the match.

Final Prediction

Musetti's higher form index, combined with his superior serving and returning capabilities, gives him a slight edge over Rune heading into this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how effectively each player capitalizes on break points, which could determine the outcome in this closely contested battle.

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