Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Lorenzo Sonego vs Carlos Taberner: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #39
59%
VS

Carlos Taberner

Rank: #98
41%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Sonego

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Ranking Trends

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #39 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #45 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #43 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #55 2025-01-13

Carlos Taberner

  • Current #98 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #102 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #111 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #140 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #196 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 45.1
ELO Rating: 1144.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.0
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 74.1
Return Rating: 47.1

Carlos Taberner

Form Index: 20.5
ELO Rating: 612.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1527.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 7.2
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 93.8

Recent Matches

Lorenzo Sonego
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Carlos Taberner
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) hard Adelaide 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jerome Kym (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Umag 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Umag 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) clay Umag 94 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Lorenzo Sonego
vs
0
Carlos Taberner
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the Australian Open 2026, Lorenzo Sonego is set to face Carlos Taberner on hard courts in Australia. With a predicted win probability of 59.03% for Sonego compared to 40.97% for Taberner, the expected total number of games in the match is 39.0, indicating a competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Lorenzo Sonego, currently ranked 39, boasts a form index of 45.11 and an Elo rating of 1144.12. His surface strength index of 7.97 reflects a solid performance on hard courts, although his recent form has been inconsistent with only one victory in his last three matches. In contrast, Carlos Taberner holds a lower rank of 98, a form index of 20.54, and an Elo rating of 611.97, indicating considerable struggles in recent matches. Notably, Taberner possesses a higher mean serve index of 96.08 compared to Sonego’s 74.08, which is a significant difference of over 20 points. This could give him an edge in serving efficiency despite his overall lower ranking and form. Recent performances highlight Sonego's difficulties, having lost two out of his last three matches, including a recent defeat to Juncheng Shang. Taberner, on the other hand, has also faced challenges, losing all three of his last matches without securing a set. This trend of losses places both players under pressure, making this match pivotal for regaining confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Lorenzo Sonego - Carlos Taberner) +2.0 Most likely spread: +2 (Lorenzo Sonego wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 15.92 aces, with the surface favoring a balanced number of service points due to its medium pace. Given Taberner's significantly higher mean serve index, he may contribute a higher number of aces, while the predicted total of 5.94 double faults indicates that both players might struggle with consistency on serve. The hard court surface will play a crucial role in determining the effectiveness of each player’s serve and return capabilities.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego's edge in recent experience at higher-level tournaments may provide him with the necessary confidence to secure a victory against Carlos Taberner. The key factor to watch will be how well each player capitalizes on their serve, particularly given Taberner's strong serve index, which could sway the match depending on his ability to convert service games into points.

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