Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Sonego arrives with a clear ranking advantage (No. 62 versus No. 138) and a marginally higher Elo (1630.7 vs 1622.8). His form index sits at 51.8, while Lajovic’s is notably stronger at 70.0, signalling recent momentum for the Serbian. Fatigue is a major contrast: Sonego has 0 minutes on court in this event, whereas Lajovic carries 194 minutes, which could matter on slow, physically demanding clay. Surface strength metrics are similar and middling for both (Sonego 38.9, Lajovic 41.3), so neither is a clay specialist on paper. There are important serve/return differences. Lajovic’s mean serve index (97.18) eclipses Sonego’s (77.38) by nearly 20 points, and his mean return index (90.78) likewise outstrips Sonego’s 63.92 by roughly 27 points — both gaps exceed 5 points and suggest Lajovic is the bigger serving and returning threat. Recent results reflect mixed rhythms: Sonego beat Pedro Martínez in a long clay battle in Barcelona but lost to Andrey Rublev and had an early exit at the Australian Open; Lajovic has two wins in Madrid (including Matteo Arnaldi) and a loss in Marrakech, showing confidence on clay this swing despite the minutes accumulated.