Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Yunchaokete Bu vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Yunchaokete Bu

Rank: #75
45%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #37
55%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Lorenzo Sonego

Ranking Trends

Yunchaokete Bu

  • Current Rank: #75 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #72 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #71 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #74 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #136 (2024-07-29)

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current Rank: #37 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #35 (2025-01-27)
  • 9 Months Ago: #52 (2024-10-28)
  • 12 Months Ago: #57 (2024-07-29)

Player Metrics

Yunchaokete Bu

Form Index: 41.3
ELO Rating: 647.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1519.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 110.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.2
Clay: 5.5
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 85.9

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 53.2
ELO Rating: 1060.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.9
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Yunchaokete Bu
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Toronto 110 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Washington 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) hard Washington 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (1-2) hard Los Cabos 182 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alan Magadan (2-0) hard Los Cabos 124 min

Lorenzo Sonego
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Arnaldi (0-2) hard Washington 126 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (3-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jaime Faria (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yunchaokete Bu
vs
0
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto, Yunchaokete Bu faces off against Lorenzo Sonego on hard courts. The match promises to be competitive, with Sonego slightly favored to win with a probability of 54.66%, while Bu has a 45.34% chance of victory. The predicted total number of games played is estimated at 24.

Match Analysis

Yunchaokete Bu is currently ranked 75th with a form index of 41.34 and an Elo rating of 647.36. His cumulative fatigue stands at 110 minutes, suggesting he may be feeling the effects of recent matches. Bu shows a surface strength index of 8.22 and possesses a strong mean serve index of 97.46, although his mean return index of 85.88 is moderate. In contrast, Lorenzo Sonego is ranked 37th, with a better form index of 53.15 and a significantly higher Elo rating of 1060.18. Notably, Sonego has zero cumulative fatigue, which could enhance his performance. His surface strength index is also superior at 9.89, coupled with a mean serve index of 96.08 and a mean return index of 84.76, indicating a slight edge in serving capability. Recent performances reveal that Bu has won two out of his last three matches, including a solid victory in his latest encounter against Vit Kopriva. However, he suffered a setback against Alex de Minaur just prior. Sonego, conversely, has struggled recently, losing two consecutive matches in Washington and Wimbledon, but he did secure a victory against Brandon Nakashima prior to that.

Final Prediction

Lorenzo Sonego's higher ranking, better form index, and absence of fatigue provide him with an advantageous position heading into this match. A key factor to monitor will be how Bu manages his fatigue and if he can leverage his serving power effectively against Sonego's slightly superior overall performance metrics.