Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Luca Van Assche vs Clement Tabur Prediction

Luca Van Assche

Rank: #48
55%
VS

Clement Tabur

Rank: #158
45%
Expected Total Games: 24.9
Predicted Winner: Luca Van Assche

Why the Model Favors Luca Van Assche

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +3.5 Luca Van Assche
Serve & return game +3.3 Clement Tabur
Overall strength +2.9 Luca Van Assche
Age +2.5 Luca Van Assche
Surface fit +2.0 Clement Tabur

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Luca Van Assche. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Luca Van Assche

  • Current #48 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #78 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #98 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #165 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #165 2025-10-20

Clement Tabur

  • Current #158 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #161 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #167 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #202 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #261 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Luca Van Assche

Form Index: 37.1
ELO Rating: 1572.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 21.3
Grass: 2.0
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 89.8

Clement Tabur

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 1549.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 260.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.5
Clay: 18.6
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 87.9

Recent Matches

Luca Van Assche
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Clement Tabur
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2-0) hard Marseille 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) hard Marseille 184 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Braden Shick (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Orlando Luz (0-2) clay Estoril 91 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Edas Butvilas (2-1) clay Estoril 141 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Luca Van Assche
vs
0
Clement Tabur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Van Assche is a narrow favourite, with the win probabilities at 55% to 45% and 24.9 total games expected. This Round of 32 match in Marseille looks finely balanced rather than a clear favourite’s assignment.

Match Analysis

Van Assche’s higher ranking, 48th against Tabur’s 158th, reflects a small overall-strength advantage. The model’s recent-form assessment also leans his way, although the latest results tell a different story: Tabur has won both of his Marseille matches, while Van Assche lost his last three listed matches. Tabur’s serve and hard-court fit help keep him close, while Van Assche has the stronger return profile. Tabur has also spent 260 minutes on court in Marseille, compared with none for Van Assche, a workload gap that could become relevant if the match runs long.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.9 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Luca Van Assche - Clement Tabur) -0.4 Most likely spread: -1 (Clement Tabur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Van Assche is projected for 5.2 aces and 3.2 double faults, against 6.4 aces and 2.4 double faults for Tabur. Tabur’s slightly stronger serve supports the higher ace estimate, while Van Assche is forecast to produce more double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.4 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Luca Van Assche 5.2 + Clement Tabur 6.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.5 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Luca Van Assche 3.2 + Clement Tabur 2.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Luca Van Assche

Expected 5.2 aces

Clement Tabur

Expected 6.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Luca Van Assche

Expected 3.2 double faults

Clement Tabur

Expected 2.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

35.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Luca Van Assche's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (28.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tabur’s serve is the clearest threat to the narrow forecast: if it consistently earns him cheap points, his hard-court strengths could outweigh Van Assche’s return advantage.

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