Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 64

Mackenzie McDonald vs Colton Smith Prediction

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #95
50%
VS

Colton Smith

Rank: #139
50%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Mackenzie McDonald

Ranking Trends

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current Rank: #95 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #97 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #130 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #120 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #97 (2024-07-22)

Colton Smith

  • Current Rank: #139 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #161 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #371 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #496 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #827 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 23.6
ELO Rating: 447.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.6
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 85.9

Colton Smith

Form Index: 50.3
ELO Rating: 327.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1708.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 274.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 1.8
Grass: 1.3
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Mackenzie McDonald
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Karen Khachanov (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs George Loffhagen (0-2) grass Eastbourne 94 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (1-2) grass London 81 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Henry Searle (2-0) grass London 64 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (2-0) grass London 92 min

Colton Smith
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Tyler Zink (2-1) hard Washington 143 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Andrew Fenty (2-1) hard Washington 131 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Govind Nanda (0-2) hard Los Cabos 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Stefano Napolitano (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Houston 89 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mackenzie McDonald
vs
0
Colton Smith
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Mackenzie McDonald and Colton Smith takes place in the Round of 64 at the Washington tournament, featuring hard court play. With a narrow margin in probability, Mackenzie McDonald is predicted to win with a 50.22% chance, while Colton Smith follows closely at 49.78%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Mackenzie McDonald, currently ranked 95, has a form index of 23.62, indicating a challenging run of late, with an Elo rating of 447.58. His fatigue level stands at 0.0, suggesting he enters this match fresh. McDonald has a surface strength index of 5.57, which reflects his capability on hard courts. His mean serve index (96.21) is slightly higher than that of Colton Smith (95.24), but with a difference of less than 5 points, it may not be a significant factor. However, Colton Smith has a better mean return index of 86.57 compared to McDonald's 85.85, indicating a potential advantage in return play. Colton Smith, ranked 139, shows a more favorable form index of 50.26, which could benefit him in this matchup. His Elo rating of 327.42 is lower than McDonald's, and he carries a cumulative fatigue of 274.0 minutes, which could hinder his performance. In his recent matches, Smith has secured victories in his last two encounters at the same tournament, demonstrating resilience and adaptability on hard surfaces. Conversely, McDonald has struggled in his last three matches, failing to secure a win, which could impact his confidence.

Final Prediction

Despite the close probabilities, Mackenzie McDonald holds a slight edge due to a higher serve index and the absence of cumulative fatigue. However, Colton Smith's recent victories on hard courts could prove critical, making his return play a key factor to monitor in this matchup. The outcome may hinge on how well McDonald can handle the pressure against an opponent who has found success in the current tournament.