Chengdu China Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Mackenzie McDonald vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Prediction

Mackenzie McDonald

Rank: #98
50%
VS

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Rank: #114
50%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Nikoloz Basilashvili

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Mackenzie McDonald

  • Current #98 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #98 2025-06-16
  • 6 mo ago #101 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #131 2024-12-16
  • 12 mo ago #149 2024-09-16

Nikoloz Basilashvili

  • Current #114 2025-09-15
  • 3 mo ago #125 2025-06-16
  • 6 mo ago #144 2025-03-17
  • 9 mo ago #208 2024-12-16
  • 12 mo ago #329 2024-09-16

Player Metrics

Mackenzie McDonald

Form Index: 48.5
ELO Rating: 557.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 283.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.3
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 86.2

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Form Index: 57.7
ELO Rating: 575.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 297.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 3.3
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Mackenzie McDonald
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Chengdu 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (2-1) hard Chengdu 112 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs James McCabe (2-0) hard Chengdu 51 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) hard Winston Salem 151 min

Nikoloz Basilashvili
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) hard Chengdu 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Bernard Tomic (2-1) hard Chengdu 99 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-1) hard Chengdu 106 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marc-Andrea Huesler (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gauthier Onclin (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Mackenzie McDonald
vs
0
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 16 match at the Chengdu tournament in China, Mackenzie McDonald is set to face Nikoloz Basilashvili on hard courts. The predicted winner is Nikoloz Basilashvili, with a marginal probability of victory at 50.16%, compared to Mackenzie McDonald's 49.84%. The anticipated total number of games played in this closely contested match is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Mackenzie McDonald, currently ranked 98, has a form index of 48.46 and an Elo rating of 557.09. His cumulative fatigue stands at 283 minutes, indicating he has spent a considerable amount of time on the court this tournament. His surface strength index is 6.28, complemented by a mean serve index of 96.45 and a mean return index of 86.20. In contrast, Nikoloz Basilashvili, ranked 114, boasts a higher form index of 57.72 and an Elo rating of 575.02, along with 297 minutes of fatigue. He has a lower surface strength index of 4.52, but his mean return index of 87.00 is slightly better, while his mean serve index is 93.75, which is over 5 points lower than McDonald's. Both players have shown solid performances in their recent matches at Chengdu. McDonald has won all three of his matches, including a notable victory against Botic van de Zandschulp, whereas Basilashvili has also triumphed in his last three encounters, defeating players like Billy Harris and Bernard Tomic. This consistency from both players sets the stage for a competitive matchup.

Final Prediction

Nikoloz Basilashvili's slightly higher Elo rating and form index provide him with an edge, despite the close probabilities of winning. A key factor to watch during the match will be McDonald's service game, particularly given his superior mean serve index, which may play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel