Chengdu China Hard Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Marcos Giron vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Marcos Giron

Rank: #50
46%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
54%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Ranking Trends

Marcos Giron

  • Current Rank: #50 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-06-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #45 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #46 (2024-12-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #45 (2024-09-16)

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current Rank: #33 (2025-09-15)
  • 3 Months Ago: #32 (2025-06-16)
  • 6 Months Ago: #32 (2025-03-17)
  • 9 Months Ago: #38 (2024-12-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #39 (2024-09-16)

Player Metrics

Marcos Giron

Form Index: 49.8
ELO Rating: 1153.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1592.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 193.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.3
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 10.3
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.3

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 54.7
ELO Rating: 1135.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1608.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 101.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.4
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 84.2

Recent Matches

Marcos Giron
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lorenzo Sonego (2-0) hard Chengdu 103 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ethan Quinn (2-0) hard Chengdu 90 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mariano Navone (3-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) hard Winston Salem 84 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Juncheng Shang (2-0) hard Chengdu 101 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jerome Kym (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (3-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) hard Cincinnati 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Blockx (2-1) hard Cincinnati 143 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Marcos Giron
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the quarterfinals of the Chengdu tournament held on hard courts, Marcos Giron faces Brandon Nakashima in a highly anticipated matchup. The prediction slightly favors Nakashima, with a win probability of 53.90% compared to Giron's 46.10%. The predicted total number of games played is estimated to be around 24.

Match Analysis

Marcos Giron, currently ranked 50th, holds a form index of 49.82 and an Elo rating of 1153.65. His cumulative fatigue from the current tournament stands at 193 minutes, which may affect his performance. His surface strength index is 10.34, while his mean serve index is 97.02 and mean return index is 86.33. On the other hand, Brandon Nakashima, ranked 33rd, has a stronger form index of 54.66 and an Elo rating of 1135.46. With only 101 minutes of cumulative fatigue, Nakashima appears fresher. His surface strength index is marginally higher at 11.40, and while his mean serve index is slightly lower at 96.50, his return index of 84.20 is lower than Giron's by more than 5 points. Both players have demonstrated solid performances in their recent matches. Giron has won his last two matches in Chengdu against Lorenzo Sonego and Ethan Quinn without dropping a set, showcasing his competitive edge. However, Nakashima also secured a convincing victory against Juncheng Shang in his last match. Prior to that, he faced a tough loss against Jerome Kym at the US Open, which may weigh on his mental resilience going into this match.

Final Prediction

Brandon Nakashima's slight advantage in overall ranking and form index, combined with his lower fatigue levels, gives him the edge in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Nakashima's ability to capitalize on Giron's return game, as both players have strong serving abilities.