Geneva Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Cameron Norrie

Rank: #19
49%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #44
51%
Expected Total Games: 26.0
Predicted Winner: Mariano Navone

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Ranking Trends

Cameron Norrie

  • Current #19 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #27 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #27 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #36 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #90 2025-05-19

Mariano Navone

  • Current #44 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #74 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #72 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #74 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #98 2025-05-19

Player Metrics

Cameron Norrie

Form Index: 36.4
ELO Rating: 1726.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1761.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.8
Clay: 25.4
Grass: 29.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 92.2

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 52.1
ELO Rating: 1691.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1735.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 175.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 27.5
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Cameron Norrie
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Mariano Navone
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Cameron Norrie
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Geneva, Switzerland — Round of 16 on clay at an ATP 250 event. Mariano Navone is a narrow favorite to upset Cameron Norrie, with a 51.21% chance to win against Norrie’s 48.79%. The model projects a relatively tight affair of about 26.03 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper Norrie arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 19) with the superior Elo (1726.6) and strong serve and return indices (mean serve 95.9, mean return 92.2). Navone (rank 44, Elo 1691.3) counters with a markedly better form index (52.09 vs 36.38) and a slightly higher surface strength index for clay (27.52 vs 25.45). Fatigue is a clear contrast: Norrie shows zero minutes on court in this event, while Navone carries 175 minutes from long earlier rounds — he has match rhythm but may be more taxed physically. Recent results underline that dynamic. Norrie has two straight losses in big clay events (to Sinner and Tirante) after an earlier win in Madrid; his three-match sample shows inconsistency on clay. Navone comes in with two wins in his last three, including a hard-fought 2-1 victory in Geneva and an upset win in Rome, separated by a close three-set loss to Medjedovic. Those marathon matches explain both his elevated form index and the accumulated fatigue.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.0 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Cameron Norrie - Mariano Navone) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Mariano Navone wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay duel is modest: predicted aces total 5.45 for the match, reflecting clay’s slower speed and higher bounce that reduce serve winners. The double faults prediction is also notable — expected double faults total 4.45 — which aligns with clay producing longer rallies and more pressure/late-match errors. Neither player holds a significantly higher serve rating that would markedly boost the predicted aces, so the expected aces and expected double faults lean on surface and recent match length.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 5.5 Most likely: 5 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Cameron Norrie's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (33.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Navone’s edge comes from superior recent form and match rhythm, despite carrying fatigue; the forecast margin is thin. The key factor to watch will be whether Navone’s accumulated minutes undermine his movement late in sets or whether his momentum outweighs Norrie’s higher ranking and return quality.

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