Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Denis Shapovalov vs Mariano Navone: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #37
43%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #44
57%
Expected Total Games: 26.1
Predicted Winner: Mariano Navone

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Ranking Trends

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #37 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #25 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #23 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #30 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #28 2025-05-05

Mariano Navone

  • Current #44 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #75 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #74 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #78 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #99 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 33.7
ELO Rating: 1629.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.7
Clay: 12.3
Grass: 13.0
Serve Rating: 95.8
Return Rating: 92.7

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 41.3
ELO Rating: 1638.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1685.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.2
Clay: 25.6
Grass: 10.9
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 89.7

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Mariano Navone
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-2) clay Madrid 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Nuno Borges (2-0) clay Madrid 86 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Andrey Rublev (0-2) clay Barcelona 112 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (2-1) clay Bucharest 137 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) clay Bucharest 211 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
1
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 1

Key Prediction Insights

In the opening round in Rome (Italy) on clay at a Masters 1000 event, Mariano Navone is narrowly favored to upset Denis Shapovalov in the Round of 128. The model gives Navone a 57.28% chance to win versus 42.72% for Shapovalov, with a predicted total of about 26.08 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Shapovalov arrives ranked 37 with an Elo of 1629.35 and a form index of 33.68. His mean serve index (95.84) and mean return index (92.74) remain among the stronger numbers on tour, though his surface strength index on clay is low at 12.35. He has no tournament fatigue recorded. Navone, ranked 44, has a slightly higher Elo (1638.58) and a better form index (41.33). His clay surface strength (25.63) is meaningfully higher than Shapovalov’s, and his serve and return indices (94.48 and 89.71) are comparable to Shapovalov’s. The difference between their serve and return indices is small, so neither player holds a decisive serve-rating edge on paper. Recent results paint a similar picture of inconsistency. Shapovalov is 1–2 over his last three matches, with a win in Munich followed by straight-sets losses in Munich and Madrid on clay. Navone is also 1–2 in his last three, beating Nuno Borges in Madrid before competitive defeats to Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev; his Madrid match vs Zverev went three sets and lasted longer, suggesting comfort in extended clay exchanges.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.1 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Mariano Navone) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Mariano Navone wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at 7.63 for the match while the predicted double faults total 4.26. On slow, high-bouncing clay, expected aces tend to drop and expected double faults can climb as rallies lengthen and physical demands increase. Both players have high serve indices but are similar enough that neither should dramatically inflate the predicted aces figure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 7.6 Most likely: 7 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.3 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

32.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Denis Shapovalov's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (35.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Navone’s slight edge comes from better recent form, a higher Elo and a stronger clay profile, which the model favors in typical Rome conditions. Watch baseline consistency and return pressure on second serves — those factors are likely to decide this short, tight encounter.

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