Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Mariano Navone vs Emilio Nava: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Mariano Navone

Rank: #75
49%
VS

Emilio Nava

Rank: #82
51%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Emilio Nava

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Ranking Trends

Mariano Navone

  • Current #75 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #72 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #78 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #99 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #47 2025-02-10

Emilio Nava

  • Current #82 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #88 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #105 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #137 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #222 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 0.3
ELO Rating: 702.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1604.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 67.7
Return Rating: 78.6

Emilio Nava

Form Index: 52.9
ELO Rating: 696.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1531.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 87.4

Recent Matches

Mariano Navone
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Emilio Nava
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mariano Navone
vs
1
Emilio Nava
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay-court match in Buenos Aires (ATP 250) pits Mariano Navone against Emilio Nava in Argentina. The model gives Emilio Nava a narrow edge — predicted winner — with probabilities of 51.48% for Nava and 48.52% for Navone, and an expected total of about 23.16 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Navone (rank 75) enters with an Elo of ~702.3 and a very low form index (0.27 on the provided scale); his surface strength index on clay is 7.80 and reported fatigue is zero. Nava (rank 82) has an Elo of ~696.5 and a substantially higher form index (52.92); his clay surface strength index is 5.69 with no tournament fatigue recorded. The mean serve index difference is large: Nava 97.63 versus Navone 67.75 (difference ~30 points), and the mean return index difference also favors Nava (87.44 vs 78.60, difference ~8.8). Both disparities are notable and will shape short points and service holds. Recent form over the last three matches shows Navone without a win in his three listed outings (all on hard courts), with long matches and straight or straight-set defeats. Nava’s recent ledger includes one win (against Kyrian Jacquet) and two losses, also mostly on hard courts; his win came in a five-set match, indicating resilience in tight encounters. Neither player shows tournament fatigue, so form and surface adaptation are the main variables.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mariano Navone - Emilio Nava) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 16.46 total; the predicted aces skew toward Nava given his much higher serve index, though clay typically reduces ace counts due to slower ball speed and high bounce. The double faults prediction sits at 5.44 expected double faults; longer rallies and physical demands on clay can increase error-prone serving later in matches. Overall, the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect a balance between Nava’s big-serve profile and the dampening effect of clay.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Nava’s advantage comes from higher form, superior serve and return indices and a slight edge in the model’s ratings, making him the projected winner. Key factor to watch: whether Navone can neutralize Nava’s serve with early returns and extended baseline exchanges on clay.

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