Bastad Sweden Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Tomas Barrios Vera vs Mariano Navone Prediction

Tomas Barrios Vera

Rank: #108
34%
VS

Mariano Navone

Rank: #91
66%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Mariano Navone

Ranking Trends

Tomas Barrios Vera

  • Current Rank: #108 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #129 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #152 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #170 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #207 (2024-07-15)

Mariano Navone

  • Current Rank: #91 (2025-06-30)
  • 3 Months Ago: #70 (2025-04-14)
  • 6 Months Ago: #47 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #43 (2024-10-14)
  • 12 Months Ago: #36 (2024-07-15)

Player Metrics

Tomas Barrios Vera

Form Index: 31.4
ELO Rating: 351.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1552.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.1
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.7

Mariano Navone

Form Index: 53.8
ELO Rating: 1125.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1576.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.9
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 8.7
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 90.3

Recent Matches

Tomas Barrios Vera
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs James McCabe (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Henrique Rocha (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Luka Pavlovic (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jaume Munar (1-2) clay Rome 186 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-1) clay Rome 176 min

Mariano Navone
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Denis Shapovalov (3-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nishesh Basavareddy (0-2) grass Mallorca 76 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-1) grass Mallorca 115 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Barrios Vera
vs
0
Mariano Navone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Tomas Barrios Vera and Mariano Navone at the ATP 250 tournament in Bastad, Sweden, marks a significant clash in the round of 32 on clay surface. With a probability of 34.18% for Barrios Vera and 65.82% for Navone, the latter is favored to win, with a predicted total of 22 games played in the match.

Match Analysis

Tomas Barrios Vera, currently ranked 108, has a form index of 31.39 and an Elo rating of 351.15. His performance on clay is reflected in his surface strength index of 3.61, which indicates some capability on this surface, but a relatively weak profile overall. Notably, Barrios Vera has a mean serve index of 95.90 and a mean return index of 85.69. In contrast, Mariano Navone, ranked 91, shows a stronger form index of 53.85 with a significantly higher Elo rating of 1125.34. His surface strength index is also better at 10.53, suggesting he is more adept on clay. Navone boasts a mean serve index of 94.82 and a mean return index of 90.27, highlighting a slight advantage in returning capabilities over Barrios Vera. In their recent performances, both players have faced challenges. Barrios Vera has struggled in his last three matches, winning only once against Luka Pavlovic but losing to both Henrique Rocha and James McCabe. On the other hand, Navone's recent form has been mixed, with a notable victory over Denis Shapovalov but also a loss to Pedro Martinez. His performance indicates resilience, especially after a tough match against a higher-ranked opponent.

Final Prediction

Mariano Navone's superior form index, higher Elo rating, and overall better performance on clay provide him with the edge going into this match. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Navone’s return game, as his ability to capitalize on Barrios Vera's serve could significantly influence the match's outcome.