Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #23
66%
VS

Marin Cilic

Rank: #70
34%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Player Metrics

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 52.5
ELO Rating: 1585.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.3
Clay: 9.5
Grass: 12.0
Serve Rating: 72.9
Return Rating: 62.0

Marin Cilic

Form Index: 67.1
ELO Rating: 833.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1537.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.8
Clay: 5.7
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Denis Shapovalov

Marin Cilic

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Denis Shapovalov
vs
0
Marin Cilic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In this Round of 64 match at the 2026 Australian Open on hard courts, Denis Shapovalov faces Marin Cilic in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Shapovalov, currently ranked 23, is favored to win with a probability of 65.65%, while Cilic, ranked 70, has a 34.35% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 36.96.

Match Analysis

Denis Shapovalov brings a form index of 52.45 and an Elo rating of 1585.63 into this match, alongside a cumulative fatigue level of 174 minutes. His surface strength index stands at 11.31, with a mean serve index of 72.94 and a mean return index of 62.01. In contrast, Marin Cilic has a higher form index of 67.10 but a significantly lower Elo rating of 833.83. Both players share the same fatigue level of 174 minutes, but Cilic's surface strength index of 8.77 is notably lower than Shapovalov's. Cilic possesses a strong mean serve index of 97.23, which is a notable difference of over 5 points compared to Shapovalov's serve index, while his mean return index of 92.17 also exceeds Shapovalov's by more than 5 points. Recent performances reflect contrasting fortunes for the players. Shapovalov's last match resulted in a decisive win against Yunchaokete Bu, where he dominated without losing a set. However, in his two previous matches, he faced defeats against Raphael Collignon and Joao Fonseca. Conversely, Cilic's recent win against Daniel Altmaier was closely contested, with both players winning one set each, though his prior match against Nuno Borges resulted in a loss. This inconsistency may impact his confidence as he enters this match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.0 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Denis Shapovalov - Marin Cilic) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Marin Cilic wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. Positive values indicate Denis Shapovalov winning more games, negative values indicate Marin Cilic winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 10.57 aces, with the hard court surface likely contributing to a moderate ace count. Given Cilic’s higher mean serve index, he may be expected to contribute a significant portion of these predicted aces. On the other hand, the expected double faults are around 4.47, indicating that both players might struggle with service consistency at times during the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Denis Shapovalov versus Marin Cilic. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Denis Shapovalov appears to have the edge due to his superior ranking and recent performance despite some struggles earlier in the season. A key factor to watch will be Cilic’s ability to leverage his powerful serve, which could dictate the flow of the match and challenge Shapovalov's return game.

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