Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Martin Damm vs Valentin Vacherot: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Martin Damm

Rank: #173
29%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #31
71%
Expected Total Games: 38.4
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

Player Metrics

Martin Damm

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 393.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1521.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.9
Clay: 1.9
Grass: 1.9
Serve Rating: 24.9
Return Rating: 26.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 1442.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1535.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.1
Clay: 27.3
Grass: 30.7
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 93.2

Recent Matches

Martin Damm

  • Last Match: vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Titouan Droguet (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Darwin Blanch (3-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Yuta Shimizu (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Valentin Vacherot

  • Last Match: vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) hard Adelaide 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Adelaide 96 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Sebastian Korda (0-2) hard Brisbane 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Paris 78 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Paris 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Martin Damm
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 128 match at the 2026 Australian Open will feature Martin Damm and Valentin Vacherot on hard courts. With a significant probability of 71.16%, Valentin Vacherot is predicted to win against Martin Damm, who has a win probability of 28.84%. The match is expected to see around 38.44 games played.

Match Analysis

Martin Damm currently holds a ranking of 173, while Valentin Vacherot is positioned much higher at 31. Damm’s form index stands at 100.0, indicating strong recent performances, but his Elo rating of 392.98 suggests he is still finding his footing on the professional circuit. Vacherot, with a significantly better Elo rating of 1442.38, comes into this match with a surface strength index of 36.13, compared to Damm’s 1.91, indicating Vacherot is more adept on hard courts. Notably, there is a considerable discrepancy in their mean serve index, with Vacherot’s at 98.22, far surpassing Damm’s 24.88, which could impact their serving effectiveness. In terms of recent form, Damm has demonstrated resilience, winning his last two matches at the Australian Open in straight sets. However, he faced a challenging opponent in Frances Tiafoe at the US Open, where he was unable to secure a victory. Vacherot’s last outing saw a loss against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, but prior to that, he showcased his capabilities by defeating Miomir Kecmanovic convincingly. This recent inconsistency could play a role in Vacherot’s performance, albeit his overall stats indicate he is the stronger player.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.4 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is anticipated to feature approximately 10.28 expected aces and 3.75 expected double faults. Given that hard courts provide a balanced playing surface that accommodates both powerful serves and robust returns, the expected aces prediction reflects Vacherot's impressive serving capabilities. His significantly higher serve index suggests he will likely be the player contributing most to the ace count, while both players will need to manage their double faults carefully to maintain service games.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.3 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Valentin Vacherot is favored to win due to his superior ranking, Elo rating, and serve capabilities, particularly on hard courts. A key factor to watch will be the effectiveness of Vacherot’s serve against Damm’s return game, as this will likely dictate the flow and outcome of the match.

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