Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 64

Matteo Arnaldi vs Daniel Altmaier Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #44
52%
VS

Daniel Altmaier

Rank: #56
48%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #44 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #44 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #39 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #37 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #40 (2024-07-22)

Daniel Altmaier

  • Current Rank: #56 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #67 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #101 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #82 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #71 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 22.6
ELO Rating: 1204.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1615.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.5
Grass: 10.4
Serve Rating: 96.9
Return Rating: 88.1

Daniel Altmaier

Form Index: 38.7
ELO Rating: 922.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1601.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.1
Clay: 8.7
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jan-Lennard Struff (0-2) grass Stuttgart 73 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Flavio Cobolli (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Novak Djokovic (0-2) clay Geneva 99 min

Daniel Altmaier
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tristan Schoolkate (0-2) hard Los Cabos 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mitchell Krueger (2-0) hard Los Cabos 92 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Corentin Moutet (0-2) grass Mallorca 134 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fabio Fognini (2-1) grass Mallorca 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Daniel Altmaier
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The matchup between Matteo Arnaldi and Daniel Altmaier at the ATP 500 tournament in Washington, D.C. marks an exciting encounter in the Round of 64 on hard court. The predicted winner is Matteo Arnaldi, with a probability of 52.17% of winning the match, while Daniel Altmaier has a 47.83% chance. The total number of games expected to be played is around 23.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi holds a rank of 44, which gives him a slight edge over Daniel Altmaier, who is ranked 56. Arnaldi’s form index stands at 22.64, indicating he has been struggling recently, while Altmaier shows a better form index of 38.68. Arnaldi's Elo rating is significantly higher at 1204.70 compared to Altmaier's 922.29, indicating stronger overall performance potential. Both players come into this match with no cumulative fatigue, ensuring they are fresh for the encounter. Notably, Arnaldi’s surface strength index of 12.01 surpasses Altmaier's 7.06, suggesting he is more suited to the hard court conditions. In their recent performances, Matteo Arnaldi has faced a tough run, losing all of his last three matches, including a first-round exit at Wimbledon. His last match against Botic van de Zandschulp saw him win no sets. In contrast, Daniel Altmaier secured a victory against Mitchell Krueger in his second-to-last match at Los Cabos, although he also suffered a first-round defeat at Wimbledon. This contrast in recent form could play a pivotal role in the match dynamics.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi's higher ranking and Elo rating provide him with a slight advantage, despite his recent struggles. The key factor to watch will be Arnaldi's ability to convert his serving strength into points, as the difference in mean serve index could prove crucial in securing a win on the hard court surface.