Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 32

Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #107
54%
VS

Francisco Comesana

Rank: #114
46%
Expected Total Games: 41.7
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 53.6
ELO Rating: 1686.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1688.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 30.6
Clay: 23.0
Grass: 8.8
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 88.6

Francisco Comesana

Form Index: 68.8
ELO Rating: 1668.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1612.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 16.9
Clay: 24.8
Grass: 8.1
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini

  • Last Match: vs Arthur Rinderknech (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marton Fucsovics (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Alexei Popyrin (0-2) clay Rome 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Dino Prizmic (0-2) clay Madrid 99 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Joao Fonseca (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 73 min

Francisco Comesana

  • Last Match: vs Luciano Darderi (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ethan Quinn (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (0-2) clay Geneva 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Valentin Royer (2-1) clay Geneva 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Max Hans Rehberg (2-0) clay Geneva 65 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Francisco Comesana
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 32 on clay at a Grand Slam stage sees Matteo Berrettini face Francisco Comesana in a matchup projected to be tight and physically demanding. The model favors Matteo Berrettini to win (53.98%) over Francisco Comesana (46.02%), with a predicted total of about 41.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Berrettini (rank 107) arrives with an Elo of 1686.78, a form index of 53.58 and a surface strength index of 23.04. His serve/return profiles are strong on paper: mean serve index 96.78 and mean return index 88.60. Comesana (rank 114) posts an Elo of 1668.30, a higher form index of 68.84, and a surface strength index of 24.77, with a mean serve index of 95.22 and mean return index of 87.58. Both players show identical cumulative fatigue at 348 minutes on court, reflecting long recent matches in this event; neither has a serve or return edge larger than five index points, so serve advantage is marginal rather than decisive. Looking at recent results, Berrettini has won two straight matches here at Roland Garros — beating Marton Fucsovics in four and Arthur Rinderknech in straight sets — after a loss in Rome. His last two wins were marathon affairs (both 174 minutes). Comesana has also been in long battles at Roland Garros, winning 3–0 and 3–2 in his previous two rounds after a defeat in Geneva; his form index reflects that string of wins. Both players’ recent schedules point to stamina being a central factor given the lengthy match durations.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.7 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Berrettini - Francisco Comesana) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. Positive values indicate Matteo Berrettini winning more games, negative values indicate Francisco Comesana winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest sits at roughly 18.39 total aces, while the expected double faults are about 7.19. On clay, predicted aces typically decline because the surface slows the ball and increases reaction time; this expected aces figure reflects that tendency. Since neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating, neither is likely to dominate the ace count outright, though their powerful serves will still matter in short points.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 18.4 Most likely: 18 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 7.2 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Matteo Berrettini versus Francisco Comesana. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

58.0% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Berrettini's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (20.7%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Matteo Berrettini's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s slight edges in Elo and marginally better serve/return indices give him the projected narrow advantage. The key factor to watch is serve reliability under fatigue — hold-to-hold serve effectiveness and limiting double faults late in sets will likely decide this one.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel