Stockholm Sweden Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Matteo Berrettini vs Giulio Zeppieri Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #59
63%
VS

Giulio Zeppieri

Rank: #161
37%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #59 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #42 2024-10-14

Giulio Zeppieri

  • Current #161 2025-09-29
  • 3 mo ago #296 2025-07-14
  • 6 mo ago #333 2025-04-14
  • 9 mo ago #246 2025-01-13
  • 12 mo ago #223 2024-10-14

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 23.9
ELO Rating: 1462.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.8
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 84.3

Giulio Zeppieri

Form Index: 52.5
ELO Rating: 457.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 147.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.6
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 2.8
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Giulio Zeppieri
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Zahraj (2-0) hard Stockholm 73 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vitaliy Sachko (2-0) hard Stockholm 74 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Dalibor Svrcina (0-2) hard Shanghai 66 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Learner Tien (0-2) hard Hangzhou 73 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Fajing Sun (2-0) hard Hangzhou 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Giulio Zeppieri
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Matteo Berrettini and Giulio Zeppieri in the Round of 32 at the Stockholm tournament is set on hard courts, presenting a competitive backdrop for both players. Matteo Berrettini, ranked 59, is favored to win with a probability of 62.85%, while Giulio Zeppieri, ranked 161, has a 37.15% chance. The predicted total number of games played is approximately 24.

Match Analysis

Matteo Berrettini enters the match with a form index of 23.85 and an Elo rating of 1462.07, indicating his experience and skill level. His surface strength index of 12.8 reflects a solid performance on hard courts, and he boasts a mean serve index of 98.28, which is notably higher than Zeppieri's 95.19. This 3.09-point difference in serve index, while not exceeding the 5-point threshold, still indicates Berrettini's strong serving capabilities. In contrast, Zeppieri holds a better mean return index of 86.55 compared to Berrettini's 84.27, a difference that may play a key role in breaking serves during the match. Recent performances reveal a stark contrast in form: Berrettini has struggled, losing two of his last three matches against ranked opponents, including a recent defeat to Adrian Mannarino in Shanghai. Conversely, Zeppieri has shown resilience, winning both of his last matches in Stockholm without dropping a set, although he faced lower-ranked opponents. This could indicate a confidence boost for Zeppieri as he steps onto the court against Berrettini.

Final Prediction

Matteo Berrettini's higher rank, experience, and superior serve index provide him with an edge in this matchup. However, Giulio Zeppieri's recent momentum and strong return game could challenge Berrettini's service games. A key factor to watch will be how effectively Berrettini can serve against Zeppieri's returning capabilities, as this could dictate the flow of the match.

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