Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Matteo Berrettini vs Jacob Fearnley Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #30
62%
VS

Jacob Fearnley

Rank: #57
38%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 45.0
ELO Rating: 1704.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1613.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 14.4
Grass: 12.7
Serve Rating: 98.3
Return Rating: 84.6

Jacob Fearnley

Form Index: 58.2
ELO Rating: 774.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1545.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 80.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.8
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 6.0
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.8

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini

  • Last Match: vs Jack Draper (0-1) clay Madrid 58 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Madrid 154 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Musetti (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Alexander Zverev (2-1) clay Monte Carlo 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Mariano Navone (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 106 min

Jacob Fearnley

  • Last Match: vs Fabio Fognini (2-0) clay Rome 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (0-2) clay Madrid 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (2-1) clay Madrid 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) clay Madrid 105 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) clay Madrid 89 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Jacob Fearnley
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match in Rome's Masters 1000 tournament features Matteo Berrettini taking on Jacob Fearnley in the Round of 64. The match will be contested on clay, which is known for its unique playing conditions. The predicted winner is Matteo Berrettini, with a win probability of 61.84%, compared to Jacob Fearnley's 38.16%. The anticipated total number of games played is 23.0.

Match Analysis

Matteo Berrettini, currently ranked 30th, has a form index of 45.02 and an Elo rating of 1704.56. He enters the match with no cumulative fatigue, indicating he is well-rested. His surface strength index of 14.45 shows he performs adequately on clay. Notably, Berrettini boasts a mean serve index of 98.31, which is significantly higher than Fearnley’s 95.17, a difference of over 5 points, indicating his serve could be a crucial weapon in this matchup. In contrast, Fearnley, ranked 57th, has a higher form index of 58.23 but carries a fatigue level of 80.0 minutes. His mean return index of 88.81 also exceeds Berrettini’s 84.59 by more than 5 points, suggesting he may excel in return situations. Examining their recent performances, Berrettini's last three matches show a mixed bag; he lost to Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti but secured a win against Marcos Giron. Fearnley, on the other hand, recently triumphed against Fabio Fognini in Rome, following a loss to Grigor Dimitrov and a victory over Tomas Machac in Madrid. This illustrates Fearnley’s ability to win but also highlights his inconsistency against higher-ranked opponents.

Final Prediction

Matteo Berrettini's edge lies in his superior serve and experience at this level, despite recent struggles. Fearnley’s fatigue and less favorable surface strength index may hinder his chances. A key factor to watch will be Berrettini’s ability to capitalize on his serve, which could dictate the pace and outcome of the match.