Vienna Austria Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Matteo Berrettini vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #48
55%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #29
45%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

Why the Model Favors Matteo Berrettini

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +7.2 Matteo Berrettini
Overall record & opposition quality +2.8 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Surface fit +1.6 Matteo Berrettini
Age +0.7 Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 55% for Matteo Berrettini. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #48 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #41 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #92 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #57 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #61 2025-10-27

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #29 2026-10-26
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-07-27
  • 6 mo ago #29 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #62 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #58 2025-10-27

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 36.1
ELO Rating: 1678.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1695.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.0
Clay: 28.2
Grass: 13.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 86.3

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 27.6
ELO Rating: 1601.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1685.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.8
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Berrettini is a narrow favourite in this Vienna Round of 32, with the forecast giving him 55% to Etcheverry’s 45%. It points to a competitive match of 26.9 games.

Match Analysis

Berrettini’s serve is the main separation: he has the stronger serve, while their return ability is close. That advantage should help him protect his service games and put more pressure on Etcheverry’s delivery. Berrettini also has the better surface fit, though only slightly. Etcheverry’s higher ranking, 29th to 48th, and stronger overall record help explain why this is not a stronger Berrettini lean. Recent results offer little momentum for either man: Berrettini has won one of his last three matches, while Etcheverry has lost all three. The ranking and record counterweight the serve and surface advantages that favor Berrettini.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Berrettini - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Berrettini is projected to hit 9.9 aces and 2.1 double faults, compared with 6.6 aces and 1.8 double faults for Etcheverry. Berrettini’s stronger serving gives him the projected ace advantage, while the hard court’s consistent bounce should offer both players a reliable platform to serve from.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.8 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Matteo Berrettini 9.9 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Matteo Berrettini 2.0 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 9.9 aces

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 6.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Matteo Berrettini

Expected 2.0 double faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

53.4% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Matteo Berrettini's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (34.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s slightly stronger return could change the balance if he consistently gets into Berrettini’s service games, rather than allowing the Italian’s serve to dictate.

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