Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry Prediction

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #68
46%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #29
54%
Expected Total Games: 25.7
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Why the Model Favors Tomas Martin Etcheverry

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +2.9 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Overall record & opposition quality +2.5 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Recent form +1.7 Mattia Bellucci
Overall strength +1.7 Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Surface fit +1.3 Mattia Bellucci

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 54% for Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current #68 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #79 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #78 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #76 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #77 2025-10-20

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #29 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #31 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #29 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #62 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #60 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 42.5
ELO Rating: 1615.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1640.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.9
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 86.4

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 1617.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.1
Clay: 24.3
Grass: 4.6
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Yi Zhou (1-2) hard Shanghai 164 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexandre Muller (2-0) hard Shanghai 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Elias Ymer (2-1) hard Shanghai 179 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Hangzhou 79 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Mattia Bellucci
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Tomas Martin Etcheverry is a narrow favourite, with a 54% win probability to Mattia Bellucci’s 46%, and 25.7 total games expected. Etcheverry’s broader record gives him the edge, but Bellucci’s recent form keeps the forecast close.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry’s higher ranking, 29 to 68, and stronger record across levels and against quality opposition underpin his advantage. His last three matches have all ended in defeat, including a loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Tokyo, so recent momentum favours Bellucci. Bellucci has won two of his last three matches, and he has a slight hard-court fit advantage. Their serving and returning profiles are closely matched, leaving little separation in those areas.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.7 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mattia Bellucci - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) -0.8 Most likely spread: -1 (Tomas Martin Etcheverry wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Bellucci is projected for 7.8 aces and 3.1 double faults, compared with 7.3 aces and 2.1 double faults for Etcheverry. Their similar serving profiles fit the near-even ace forecasts, while Bellucci is projected to double-fault more often.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.5 Most likely: 12 aces Per player: Mattia Bellucci 7.7 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 7.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Mattia Bellucci 3.0 + Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Mattia Bellucci

Expected 7.7 aces

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 7.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Mattia Bellucci

Expected 3.0 double faults

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Mattia Bellucci's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (31.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bellucci’s hard-court wins over Alexandre Muller and Elias Ymer show the specific counter to Etcheverry’s broader record. If that recent form holds, the narrow forecast could swing his way.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel