Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Michael Zheng vs Corentin Moutet: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Michael Zheng

Rank: #174
23%
VS

Corentin Moutet

Rank: #34
77%
Expected Total Games: 37.4
Predicted Winner: Corentin Moutet

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Ranking Trends

Michael Zheng

  • Current #174 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #181 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #453 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #755 2025-01-13

Corentin Moutet

  • Current #34 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #36 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #69 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Michael Zheng

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 540.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.4
Clay: 1.8
Grass: 1.8
Serve Rating: 21.8
Return Rating: 34.5

Corentin Moutet

Form Index: 59.4
ELO Rating: 1384.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1579.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 37.1
Clay: 30.9
Grass: 35.5
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 94.5

Recent Matches

Michael Zheng
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Korda (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Cruz Hewitt (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Lukas Klein (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jerome Kym (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min

Corentin Moutet
✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Michael Zheng
vs
0
Corentin Moutet
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the 2026 Australian Open, Michael Zheng faces off against Corentin Moutet on hard courts in Australia. With Moutet holding a significant edge in their matchup, he is predicted to win with a probability of 76.59%, while Zheng's chances stand at 23.41%. The expected total number of games in this encounter is approximately 37.4.

Match Analysis

Michael Zheng, currently ranked 174, has shown solid form with a perfect record in his last three matches at this tournament, although he has faced lower-ranked opponents. His Elo rating is 540.39, which indicates he has been fighting uphill in this matchup. Zheng's fatigue level of 696 minutes suggests he has spent considerable time on the court, which could impact his performance. His surface strength index is 2.40, and while his mean serve index is moderately low at 21.82, his return index of 34.54 is relatively better. Conversely, Corentin Moutet, ranked 34, presents a formidable challenge with a significantly higher Elo rating of 1384.08 and a surface strength index of 37.13. Moutet’s fatigue level of just 174 minutes reflects a fresher player entering this match. His serve is particularly strong, with a mean serve index of 96.99, far surpassing Zheng's. Additionally, Moutet's mean return index of 94.50 emphasizes his capability to counter serve effectively, creating a more challenging environment for Zheng.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.4 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Michael Zheng - Corentin Moutet) +0.0 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 12.98 aces and 5.16 double faults. Given the hard court surface's characteristics, which favor both powerful servers and strong returners, Moutet’s higher serve index suggests he’s likely to contribute significantly to the ace count. Conversely, Zheng’s lower serve rating may lead to a higher number of expected double faults, especially under pressure from Moutet's potent returns.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.0 Most likely: 12 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.2 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Corentin Moutet's overwhelming advantage in rank, Elo rating, and serve strength positions him as the clear favorite in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be how Zheng manages to navigate Moutet’s powerful serves and his own serving inconsistencies throughout the match.

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