Almaty Kazakhstan Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Mikhail Kukushkin vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Prediction

Mikhail Kukushkin

Rank: #358
21%
VS

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Rank: #135
79%
Expected Total Games: 23.3
Predicted Winner: Stefanos Sakellaridis

Why the Model Favors Stefanos Sakellaridis

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +6.3 Stefanos Sakellaridis
Age +5.5 Stefanos Sakellaridis
Overall record & opposition quality +4.5 Stefanos Sakellaridis
Serve & return game +3.5 Stefanos Sakellaridis
Surface fit +3.4 Stefanos Sakellaridis

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 79% for Stefanos Sakellaridis. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Mikhail Kukushkin

  • Current #358 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #317 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #282 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #262 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #295 2025-10-20

Stefanos Sakellaridis

  • Current #135 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #148 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #214 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #287 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #290 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Mikhail Kukushkin

Form Index: 36.2
ELO Rating: 1485.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1334.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 8.1
Grass: 3.6
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.4

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Form Index: 39.0
ELO Rating: 1524.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 10.4
Grass: 9.1
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Mikhail Kukushkin
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Stefanos Sakellaridis
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Mikhail Kukushkin
vs
0
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Sakellaridis is favored in Almaty’s Round of 32, with a 79% win probability to Mikhail Kukushkin’s 21%. The forecast expects 23.3 total games on hard court.

Match Analysis

Sakellaridis has won both of his Almaty matches in straight sets, most recently against Aleksandr Shevchenko. That gives him the more persuasive current hard-court evidence, while Kukushkin’s three latest results have all been defeats. Age also favors Sakellaridis, whose ranking of 135 is well ahead of Kukushkin’s 358. The overall level comparison and Sakellaridis’ stronger hard-court fit reinforce his advantage in these conditions.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.3 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Mikhail Kukushkin - Stefanos Sakellaridis) -3.3 Most likely spread: -4 (Stefanos Sakellaridis wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Sakellaridis is projected for 8.3 aces and 2.1 double faults, against Kukushkin’s 3.2 aces and 1.8 double faults. The expected ace gap is the standout serving difference, while the hard court’s consistent bounce gives both players a chance to make use of their serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.3 Most likely: 9 aces Per player: Mikhail Kukushkin 3.1 + Stefanos Sakellaridis 8.3
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.8 Most likely: 2 double faults Per player: Mikhail Kukushkin 1.8 + Stefanos Sakellaridis 2.1

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Mikhail Kukushkin

Expected 3.1 aces

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Expected 8.3 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Mikhail Kukushkin

Expected 1.8 double faults

Stefanos Sakellaridis

Expected 2.1 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Mikhail Kukushkin's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kukushkin’s stronger return gives him his best chance to upset the forecast. If he can make Sakellaridis play more points instead of letting him collect free points, the favorite’s projected ace advantage could shrink.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel