Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #47
47%
VS

Fabian Marozsan

Rank: #52
53%
Expected Total Games: 39.7
Predicted Winner: Fabian Marozsan

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Ranking Trends

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #47 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #84 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #42 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-05-26

Fabian Marozsan

  • Current #52 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #51 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #53 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #56 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 32.7
ELO Rating: 1578.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.0
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 17.2
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 93.0

Fabian Marozsan

Form Index: 30.5
ELO Rating: 1599.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1656.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.0
Clay: 19.9
Grass: 10.8
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Fabian Marozsan
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
0
Fabian Marozsan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, the Round of 128 on clay brings Miomir Kecmanovic against Fabian Marozsan in a matchup that promises extended rallies and tactical probing. The model narrowly favors Fabian Marozsan to advance (53.02%) over Miomir Kecmanovic (46.98%), with an expected total of about 39.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Kecmanovic enters ranked 47 with a slightly stronger form index (32.70) than Marozsan (30.48), but Marozsan carries the higher Elo (1599.33 vs 1577.98). Both players report zero cumulative fatigue coming into Paris. On clay Marozsan’s surface strength index (19.93) is noticeably higher than Kecmanovic’s (9.25), suggesting greater comfort on slow, high-bouncing courts. Serve metrics are almost identical (mean serve indices 95.92 vs 95.54), so neither player holds a clear serving advantage, but Kecmanovic’s mean return index (93.00) is materially better than Marozsan’s (85.78), which could tilt pressure toward return games. Form over the last three matches is comparable. Kecmanovic is 1-2 in those outings: a win over Dalibor Svrcina in Rome qualifying and two losses on clay to Terence Atmane and Andrey Rublev. Marozsan is also 1-2: he beat Ethan Quinn in Madrid but fell to Daniil Medvedev and Vit Kopriva in recent clay events. Both players have been tested in three-set and straight-set matches, indicating fluctuating momentum but no tournament fatigue to date.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.7 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - Fabian Marozsan) -0.1 Most likely spread: -1 (Fabian Marozsan wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the contest is modest — the predicted aces total is 14.38 — reflecting clay’s tendency to reduce free points; predicted aces are therefore limited despite both players’ high serve indices. The expected double faults total is 6.57; clay’s longer points and physical toll can elevate the double faults prediction as matches extend. Because neither player holds a significantly higher serve rating, the ace count is likely dictated more by surface and rally length than a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.4 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.9% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Miomir Kecmanovic's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (26.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Marozsan’s slight edge comes from a higher Elo and a stronger clay surface index, enough to make him the narrow favorite. Watch the return game — Kecmanovic’s superior return index is the key factor that could swing a tight encounter.

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