Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #51
50%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #57
50%
Expected Total Games: 38.2
Predicted Winner: Miomir Kecmanovic

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Ranking Trends

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #51 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #52 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #49 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #47 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-01-13

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

  • Current #57 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #60 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #58 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #38 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 10.2
ELO Rating: 980.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 7.4
Grass: 7.7
Serve Rating: 67.3
Return Rating: 75.5

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 30.2
ELO Rating: 905.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1628.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.2
Clay: 22.6
Grass: 17.6
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 95.0

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Nuno Borges (1-2) hard Auckland 149 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Lorenzo Musetti (1-2) hard Hong Kong 161 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Valentin Royer (2-0) hard Hong Kong 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (0-2) hard Paris 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Jesper de Jong (2-0) hard Paris 88 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
1
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Miomir Kecmanovic faces Tomas Martin Etcheverry on hard courts in Australia. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Kecmanovic slightly favored to win at a probability of 50.07%, while Etcheverry's chances stand at 49.93%. The anticipated total number of games played is approximately 38.23.

Match Analysis

Miomir Kecmanovic and Tomas Martin Etcheverry are closely ranked, 51 and 57 respectively, indicating a competitive matchup. Kecmanovic possesses a form index of 10.17 and an Elo rating of 980.78, suggesting a recent dip in performance, as reflected in his last three matches. In contrast, Etcheverry has a significantly higher form index of 30.22 and an Elo rating of 905.21, indicating better recent form. Both players show no cumulative fatigue, which could be advantageous in a physically demanding match. Kecmanovic has a surface strength index of 6.48, while Etcheverry boasts a notably higher index of 23.20, which may give him an advantage on hard courts. Additionally, Kecmanovic's mean serve index (67.32) is considerably lower than Etcheverry's (98.03), indicating a potential disadvantage in serving strength. The mean return index also reflects an edge for Kecmanovic (75.51) over Etcheverry's (94.96), which could influence the dynamic of the match, particularly on return games.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.2 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +0.1 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total aces for this match is around 23.19, suggesting both players will likely have opportunities to score easy points through their serves. The predicted double faults stand at 6.31, which aligns with the hard court surface that typically supports a moderate number of aces. Given Etcheverry's superior serve rating, he may lead in aces prediction, but both players will need to manage their serve reliability to minimize expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 23.2 Most likely: 23 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.3 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Miomir Kecmanovic is predicted to have a slight edge due to his superior return capabilities, despite his recent struggles. A key factor to observe will be how effectively Kecmanovic can handle Etcheverry's serve, which could ultimately dictate the match outcome.

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