Barcelona Spain Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nuno Borges

Rank: #50
63%
VS

Adrian Mannarino

Rank: #46
37%
Expected Total Games: 22.5
Predicted Winner: Nuno Borges

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Ranking Trends

Nuno Borges

  • Current #50 2026-04-06
  • 3 mo ago #46 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #46 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #35 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #41 2025-04-14

Adrian Mannarino

  • Current #46 2026-04-06
  • 3 mo ago #69 2026-01-12
  • 6 mo ago #59 2025-10-13
  • 9 mo ago #93 2025-07-14
  • 12 mo ago #124 2025-04-14

Player Metrics

Nuno Borges

Form Index: 33.8
ELO Rating: 1574.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1603.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.8
Clay: 40.8
Grass: 43.0
Serve Rating: 75.0
Return Rating: 64.8

Adrian Mannarino

Form Index: 32.2
ELO Rating: 1525.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 54.1
Clay: 36.0
Grass: 44.4
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 91.1

Recent Matches

Nuno Borges
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Adrian Mannarino
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Zizou Bergs (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 81 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Merida (1-2) clay Bucharest 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Miami 127 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Miami 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (1-2) hard Indian Wells 168 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nuno Borges
vs
0
Adrian Mannarino
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Barcelona, Spain — Round of 32 on clay at a 500-level event. This projects as a tight, tactical clay-court duel, with Nuno Borges narrowly favored to win: 62.56% for Borges against 37.44% for Adrian Mannarino. The model expects a relatively short match by games, about 22.5 games in total.

Match Analysis

Borges arrives ranked 50 with an Elo of 1574.29 and a form index of 33.79; his surface strength index on clay is 40.82 and he shows no tournament fatigue. Mannarino is ranked 46 with an Elo of 1525.88 and a form index of 32.19; his surface strength index is 36.01 and he is likewise fresh. There are large gaps in the serving and returning metrics: Mannarino’s mean serve index (97.58) exceeds Borges’ (74.99) by more than 20 points, and his mean return index (91.08) is also markedly higher than Borges’ (64.80). Those differences are meaningful in how points will be constructed. Recent results show both players struggling to find wins in the last stretch: Borges has come up short in his last three matches (losses to Rublev, Dzumhur and Opelka) while Mannarino likewise failed to convert recent opportunities (losses to Bergs, Merida and Paul). Both have been playing long matches on a mix of clay and hard courts but enter this match without accumulated minutes in the current event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.5 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nuno Borges - Adrian Mannarino) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Nuno Borges wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 16.7 total aces for the match and the predicted double faults are 6.68. On clay, expected aces tend to be lower because the slower surface and higher bounce give returners more time, while expected double faults can creep up with longer rallies and fatigue. Mannarino’s significantly higher serve rating makes him the likeliest source of most of the predicted aces, even if the surface will blunt some of that raw serving power.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Borges’ edge in the model comes from a higher Elo and a slightly stronger clay profile combined with similar form and freshness; clay’s dampening effect on outright serving power also reduces some of Mannarino’s statistical advantages. The key factor to watch will be how effectively Borges can neutralize Mannarino’s serve and whether Mannarino’s big-serving game can manufacture enough free points on this slower surface.

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