Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #124
27%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #36
73%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

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Ranking Trends

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #124 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #89 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #137 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #99 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #112 2025-02-24

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #36 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #23 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 57.1
ELO Rating: 711.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 247.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.5
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 69.6
Return Rating: 37.2

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 61.8
ELO Rating: 1565.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1605.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.9
Clay: 10.8
Grass: 13.2
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Nardi (2-1) hard Dubai 177 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Dubai 70 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Quentin Halys (1-2) hard Doha 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Billy Harris (2-0) hard Doha 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Reda Bennani (2-0) hard Doha 77 min

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pablo Carreno Busta
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dubai, U.A.E., is on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event and pits Pablo Carreno Busta against Denis Shapovalov. The model favors Denis Shapovalov to win (72.74%) over Pablo Carreno Busta (27.26%), with an expected total of about 22.8 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Carreno Busta arrives ranked 124 with a form index of 57.09 and an Elo of 711.87; he carries 247 minutes of fatigue from recent matches but shows a respectable mean serve index (69.56) and a modest surface strength index (5.52). Shapovalov is higher-ranked at 36, with a stronger form index (61.76) and a much higher Elo (1565.00), while reporting no tournament fatigue. The difference in mean serve index is substantial (Shapovalov 97.65 vs Carreno Busta 69.56), and there is an even larger gap in mean return index (Shapovalov 90.58 vs Carreno Busta 37.24), both advantages favoring Shapovalov and likely to shape the match. Across their last three matches, Carreno Busta has two recent wins in Dubai (including a 2-1 win over Luca Nardi and a straight-sets victory over Botic van de Zandschulp) and a loss in Doha to Quentin Halys. Shapovalov’s recent form includes two wins and a loss in Dallas (wins over Davidovich Fokina and Kovacevic, followed by a loss to Ben Shelton), showing solid match play with no accumulated minutes in this event.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Pablo Carreno Busta - Denis Shapovalov) +6.5 Most likely spread: +8 (Pablo Carreno Busta wins 8 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 8.89 total and the expected double faults are 6.37. On hard courts, which tend to produce a moderate number of aces, Shapovalov’s markedly higher serve rating suggests many of the predicted aces will come from him — this informs the predicted aces figure. The double faults prediction reflects both players’ serving profiles and match pressure expected at this stage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.9 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.4 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s superior Elo, higher form index and dominant serve/return metrics give him the edge in this matchup. Key factor to watch: Shapovalov’s serve and return efficiency — if he converts those advantages, the match should be resolved in relatively few games.

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