Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Liam Draxl vs Pablo Carreno Busta Prediction

Liam Draxl

Rank: #115
33%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #92
67%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Pablo Carreno Busta

Player Metrics

Liam Draxl

Form Index: 7.9
ELO Rating: 194.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1508.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 1.8
Grass: 1.9
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 89.8

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 43.5
ELO Rating: 500.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1504.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.4
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 85.8

Recent Matches

Liam Draxl

  • Last Match: vs Dusan Lajovic (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Colton Smith (0-2) clay Houston 90 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs William Grant (2-0) clay Houston 65 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Christopher O'Connell (0-2) hard Miami 86 min

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Last Match: vs Frances Tiafoe (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Francisco Comesana (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1-2) clay Rome 126 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Roman Andres Burruchaga (1-2) clay Rome 140 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (2-0) clay Rome 96 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Liam Draxl
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Liam Draxl and Pablo Carreno Busta is set to take place in Toronto, Canada, as part of the Masters 1000 tournament on hard courts. The predicted winner is Pablo Carreno Busta, with a win probability of 67.38%, while Liam Draxl has a 32.62% chance of victory. The anticipated total number of games played in this encounter is 22.

Match Analysis

Liam Draxl currently holds a rank of 115, with a form index of 7.88 and an Elo rating of 194.18. His surface strength index on hard courts is 1.99, indicating limited effectiveness on this surface. Draxl's cumulative fatigue is at 0, suggesting he enters this match fresh. In terms of serve and return, he has a mean serve index of 94.79 and a mean return index of 89.75, showing a competitive serving ability, though not exceptionally strong compared to elite players. Conversely, Pablo Carreno Busta ranks 92nd and possesses a significantly higher form index of 43.47 and an Elo rating of 500.38. His surface strength index of 5.37 signifies a better adaptation to hard courts than Draxl. Both players have a similar mean serve index, but Draxl’s return index exceeds Carreno Busta's by over 4 points, which could play a role in the match dynamics. In their recent performances, Draxl has struggled, losing all three of his last matches, including two at Roland Garros and one at Wimbledon. In contrast, Carreno Busta has shown mixed results, managing a win against Francisco Comesana but losing to Frances Tiafoe, indicating some inconsistency but recent success.

Final Prediction

Pablo Carreno Busta has the edge due to his higher ranking, better form index, and greater surface strength on hard courts. A key factor to watch will be Carreno Busta's ability to capitalize on any return opportunities against Draxl, especially given the latter's recent struggles on different surfaces.