Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Rank: #124
38%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #58
62%
Expected Total Games: 41.5
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

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Ranking Trends

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

  • Current #124 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #194 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #214 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #361 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #58 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #76 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #106 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #115 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #132 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Form Index: 67.8
ELO Rating: 1662.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1741.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 25.4
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 94.0
Return Rating: 93.6

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 49.4
ELO Rating: 1720.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1740.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.6
Clay: 22.1
Grass: 9.5
Serve Rating: 95.0
Return Rating: 85.7

Recent Matches

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Thiago Agustin Tirante
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (0-2) clay Geneva 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (0-2) clay Rome 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) clay Rome 78 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) clay Rome 86 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Gianluca Cadenasso (2-1) clay Rome 129 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 128 on clay in a grand slam setting, Thiago Agustin Tirante is narrowly favored to advance over Pablo Llamas Ruiz. The model gives Tirante a 61.69% chance to win versus 38.31% for Llamas Ruiz, with an expected total of about 41.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Tirante arrives with the higher ranking (58) and a superior Elo (1720.5) compared with Llamas Ruiz (rank 124, Elo 1662.6). However Llamas Ruiz carries the stronger short-term form index (67.8 vs 49.4) and a notably better mean return index (93.6) than Tirante (85.7) — a difference of roughly eight points that could be decisive on clay. Fatigue is also a clear factor: Llamas Ruiz has already logged 174 minutes in this tournament while Tirante shows zero cumulative minutes, suggesting fresher legs for the Argentine. Both players show similar serve profiles (mean serve indices of ~94.0 and ~95.0, a gap below the 5-point threshold), so serve power alone is unlikely to separate them. Looking at recent results, Llamas Ruiz is 2-1 in his last three with wins over Corentin Moutet and Ugo Blanchet and a competitive loss to Daniil Medvedev. Tirante is 1-2 in his last three, beating Flavio Cobolli but falling to Daniil Medvedev and Arthur Rinderknech. Those results underline that while Tirante has the ranking edge, Llamas Ruiz’s momentum and return game make this a potential slog on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.5 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Thiago Agustin Tirante) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Thiago Agustin Tirante wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits modestly at 11.0 total predicted aces for the match while expected double faults are about 7.74. Clay’s slower surface and higher bounce typically reduce aces and lengthen rallies, which supports a lower predicted aces count and a higher expected double faults tally as fatigue accumulates. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted aces remain moderate rather than inflated.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.0 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.7 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Pablo Llamas Ruiz's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (29.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tirante’s higher rank and Elo, plus being fresh, give him the edge in this projected outcome, but Llamas Ruiz’s superior return game and recent form ensure the match should be competitive. The key factor to watch will be whether Llamas Ruiz’s return pressure and earlier match fatigue translate into breaks or costly double faults as the match progresses.

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