Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Alejandro Tabilo: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #91
51%
VS

Alejandro Tabilo

Rank: #81
49%
Expected Total Games: 40.4
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

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Ranking Trends

Quentin Halys

  • Current #91 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #78 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #71 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #52 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #74 2025-01-13

Alejandro Tabilo

  • Current #81 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #75 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #106 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #35 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #26 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 53.9
ELO Rating: 771.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1589.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.5
Clay: 6.6
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 86.2
Return Rating: 38.1

Alejandro Tabilo

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 702.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1690.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.5
Clay: 16.7
Grass: 15.0
Serve Rating: 99.0
Return Rating: 93.4

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (0-2) hard Adelaide 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jacob Fearnley (2-0) hard Adelaide 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Adam Walton (2-0) hard Adelaide 89 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Adelaide 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Brisbane 76 min

Alejandro Tabilo
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) hard Auckland 108 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli (2-0) hard Auckland 62 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Michael Mmoh (0-2) hard Hong Kong 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yi Zhou (2-1) hard Hong Kong 114 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) hard Hong Kong 167 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Alejandro Tabilo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Quentin Halys and Alejandro Tabilo is set to take place during the Round of 128 at the Australian Open, held on hard courts in Australia. With both players showing competitive form, the match is expected to be closely contested, with Halys slightly favored to win, holding a probability of 50.68% compared to Tabilo's 49.32%. The anticipated total number of games in the match is approximately 40.41.

Match Analysis

Quentin Halys, currently ranked 91, has a form index of 53.90 and an Elo rating of 771.78, which suggests he has been performing moderately well. His surface strength index of 4.47 indicates that he may struggle a bit more on hard courts compared to his overall abilities. In contrast, Alejandro Tabilo, ranked 81, has a lower form index of 41.39, but a significantly higher mean serve index of 98.97, which could provide him with a powerful advantage in service games. His Elo rating of 702.49 and surface strength index of 20.49 demonstrate that Tabilo is relatively more comfortable on hard surfaces. Notably, Halys' mean return index (38.14) falls well below Tabilo's (93.38), indicating Tabilo's superior return capabilities. Recent performances show a mixed bag for both players. Halys has had a tough time lately, losing his last match against Tomas Machac while winning two matches prior, indicating some inconsistency. Conversely, Tabilo has also faced challenges, with a recent loss to Luciano Darderi, but he did manage a win against Camilo Ugo Carabelli in his second-to-last match.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 40.4 Most likely outcome: 40 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Alejandro Tabilo) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Alejandro Tabilo wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

For this match, the expected aces prediction stands at around 24.44, which is quite substantial given the hard court surface that tends to favor powerful servers. The expected double faults prediction of 6.58 suggests that both players may struggle with their serve at times, particularly in pressure situations. Given Tabilo's significantly higher mean serve index, he may contribute more aces in the match compared to Halys, who has a lower serve rating.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 24.4 Most likely: 24 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Quentin Halys is predicted to have the edge in this matchup primarily due to his slightly better overall performance metrics and recent match experience. A key factor to watch will be Halys' ability to handle Tabilo's powerful serve, which may dictate the flow of the match and ultimately determine the outcome.

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