Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Quentin Halys vs Jack Draper: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #68
38%
VS

Jack Draper

Rank: #15
62%
Expected Total Games: 24.3
Predicted Winner: Jack Draper

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Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 51.8
ELO Rating: 800.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1600.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 177.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.8
Clay: 6.7
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 87.8
Return Rating: 35.0

Jack Draper

Form Index: 76.6
ELO Rating: 2990.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1768.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.9
Clay: 25.7
Grass: 23.9
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 90.6

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys

Jack Draper

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Jack Draper
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dubai (U.A.E.) is played on hard courts at an ATP 500-level event and pits Quentin Halys against Jack Draper. The model favors Jack Draper to win (61.92%) over Quentin Halys (38.08%), with an expected total of about 24.34 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys arrives ranked 68 with a form index of 51.8 and an Elo around 800.7; he carries 177 minutes of on-court fatigue from this tournament and a modest surface strength index of 4.79. Draper is the higher-ranked player at 15, with a stronger recent form index of 76.6 and an Elo of 2990.0; he has no tournament fatigue recorded and a surface strength index of 26.92. The gap in mean serve index is meaningful (Draper 97.52 vs Halys 87.77), and the mean return index gap is very large (Draper 90.57 vs Halys 35.02), both likely to shape baseline and service-game dynamics. Looking at recent match-level form, Halys has won his last two hard-court matches in Dubai in straight sets (against Alexander Shevchenko and Christopher O’Connell) after a loss to Arthur Fils on hard in Doha. Draper’s last three results show mixed surfaces and distances: a straight-sets win over Sebastian Baez (grass), a four-set loss to Marin Cilic (grass), and a four-set win at the US Open-level event (hard) versus Federico Agustin Gomez. Draper’s recent results and superior return metrics suggest he can overpower Halys, especially when fresh.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.3 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Jack Draper) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Jack Draper wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. Positive values indicate Quentin Halys winning more games, negative values indicate Jack Draper winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is around 10.57 total, while the double faults prediction sits at an expected total of 4.47. On medium-paced hard courts, predicted aces are moderate and expected double faults reflect some serving risk; Draper’s significantly higher serve rating makes him the main contributor to the predicted aces. Given the surface context, the expected double faults are modest and should not dominate the match outcome.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Quentin Halys versus Jack Draper. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Draper’s combination of higher rank, stronger form, far superior return index and a better serve profile gives him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be Draper’s return efficiency and whether Halys can hold serve under pressure early in sets.

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