Jiri Lehecka vs Rafael Jodar: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge is explained first by an overall strength boost toward Lehecka, but that advantage is nearly offset by Jodar’s recent record at this level and age-related factors that slightly favor him, producing a hairline advantage for Jodar. Lehecka’s contribution from overall strength (a 2.9-point lift) comes through his higher tour seeding (Rank 12 versus Jodar’s 24) and a strong mean serve index (97.73). Yet Jodar carries the heavier weight in form and class: his form index is a standout 80.56 versus Lehecka’s 51.47, and his Elo (1946) sits noticeably above Lehecka’s 1833 — both supporting the model’s tilt toward Jodar. Fatigue and surface profiles are meaningful here. Lehecka has been fresher in this event (170 minutes on court) compared with Jodar (232 minutes), a factor that nudges the projection back toward Lehecka. Surface strength indices are relatively close (Lehecka 40.5, Jodar 36.7), and neither player posts a serve or return gap greater than 5 points, so no one enjoys a glaring serving or returning advantage. Recent form: Lehecka has two straight straight-set wins in Toronto after a loss in Los Cabos, while Jodar arrives on a three-match winning run in hard-court events, including solid wins over high-quality opponents and longer matches that reflect match toughness.