Rafael Jodar vs Kei Nishikori: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s lead for Jodar comes mainly from overall strength (adding 9.4 percentage points) and recent record by level (6.7 points), with additional weight from overall record and opposition quality (6.5), surface fit (5.7) and age (5.5) all favoring Jodar. Those signals are visible in the numbers: Jodar sits at No. 24 with an Elo ~1892 and a high form index (72.3). He has strong service and return profiles on paper (mean serve 95.73, mean return 91.48) and has accumulated 112 minutes on court in this event. Nishikori, listed at rank 1000 with a much lower Elo (~1543) and a form index of 36.27, arrives with higher tournament fatigue (151 minutes) and weaker surface strength (17.52 vs Jodar’s 28.51). The mean serve indices are nearly identical (95.73 vs 95.49), but Jodar’s mean return is meaningfully better by more than five points, which tilts short rallies and break chances in Jodar’s direction. In recent outings Jodar has won two of his last three matches: a straight-sets win over Arthur Fils in Washington (112 minutes) and a five-set scalp of Pablo Carreño Busta at Wimbledon, with a loss to Shintaro Mochizuki in between. Nishikori has one win in his last three — a 151-minute victory over Juncheng Shang in Washington — bookended by defeats in Cincinnati and Geneva.