Rafael Jodar vs Lorenzo Musetti: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Musetti comes mainly from overall strength and serve & return considerations — reflected in his higher ranking (No. 15 vs Jodar’s 24) and solid serving numbers. Musetti’s mean serve index (96.36) slightly outpaces Jodar’s (95.79), and his surface strength index (39.71) is higher, which feeds the model components that favored him by about 9.9 percentage points combined. That said, Jodar counters with superior recent form and matchup credentials: his form index (72.34) and Elo (1896.17) are both stronger than Musetti’s (form 45.62, Elo 1859.84), and those factors — plus the model’s assessments of overall record and opposition quality — push the probability back toward Jodar. Fatigue is comparable: Jodar has spent 181 minutes on court this week versus Musetti’s 176, so stamina is not a decisive separator. Surface fit is listed among the drivers favoring Jodar in the explainability outputs, even as raw surface strength indices show a mixed picture; the model balances those inputs along with age as another marginal advantage for Jodar. Recent form: Jodar arrives off straight-set wins over Kei Nishikori and Arthur Fils in Washington after a four-set loss at Wimbledon, while Musetti has two wins in Washington (including a 136-minute match vs Vukic) and a loss to Casper Ruud in Rome.