Raphael Collignon vs Arthur Fils: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Fils stems primarily from overall strength and recent results by level. Fils carries a substantially higher Elo (1928.10) and a superior ranking (24 vs 43), which together explain the largest single swing toward him. The model also credits Fils for stronger results at higher-level events recently, even though his immediate form index (37.38) is lower than Collignon’s (48.55). That said, Collignon earns meaningful credit from surface fit and the combined serve & return picture. Collignon posts very high mean serve (96.53) and mean return (92.35) indices, and his recent grass matches (a win over Mattia Bellucci and competitive outings in Halle and Eastbourne) underpin the model’s surface-fit lift toward him. Note the mean return index gap: Collignon’s return (92.35) is more than five points better than Fils’s (87.33), which could matter on grass despite Fils’s stronger baseline credentials. Fatigue is a non-factor for both players (0 minutes on court this event). Recent form narratives differ: Collignon is 1-2 in his last three, with a solid grass win and two tight losses; Fils is also 1-2, but his defeats came on clay against top opposition and he beat Lehecka in Madrid. These short-term patterns feed the model’s competing adjustments.