Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Rinky Hijikata vs Valentin Vacherot: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #115
41%
VS

Valentin Vacherot

Rank: #32
59%
Expected Total Games: 37.0
Predicted Winner: Valentin Vacherot

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Ranking Trends

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current #115 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #106 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #82 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #84 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #72 2025-01-13

Valentin Vacherot

  • Current #32 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #39 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #258 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #223 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #200 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 63.8
ELO Rating: 652.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1577.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.9
Clay: 3.0
Grass: 3.7
Serve Rating: 72.2
Return Rating: 67.0

Valentin Vacherot

Form Index: 59.8
ELO Rating: 1442.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1538.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 11.0
Grass: 12.8
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 92.7

Recent Matches

Rinky Hijikata
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Valentin Vacherot
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rinky Hijikata
vs
0
Valentin Vacherot
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The Round of 64 match between Rinky Hijikata and Valentin Vacherot at the 2026 Australian Open promises to be a competitive encounter on hard courts. With Vacherot favored to win at a probability of 58.78%, compared to Hijikata's 41.22%, the match is expected to feature around 37 total games.

Match Analysis

Rinky Hijikata, currently ranked 115, has a form index of 63.81 and an Elo rating of 652.39. His cumulative fatigue stands at 174 minutes, which may impact his performance as he has also demonstrated a noteworthy surface strength index of 3.91. Conversely, Valentin Vacherot, ranked 32, showcases a significantly higher Elo rating of 1442.62, along with a superior surface strength index of 13.74. This disparity indicates Vacherot's stronger overall performance on hard courts. Additionally, Vacherot's mean serve index of 98.03 surpasses Hijikata's 72.19 by a margin that could influence the match dynamics. Vacherot also excels in return capabilities, boasting a mean return index of 92.70 compared to Hijikata’s 66.99, which reflects a notable difference in return effectiveness. In their recent performances, both players have experienced mixed results. Hijikata's last match ended in a commanding victory against Adrian Mannarino, winning all sets, but prior matches included a loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Vacherot, on the other hand, recently defeated Martin Damm with a straight-sets victory, although he suffered a setback against Davidovich Fokina in the previous round. This recent form suggests Vacherot may have a psychological edge heading into this matchup.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.0 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rinky Hijikata - Valentin Vacherot) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Valentin Vacherot wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is about 6.72, while the anticipated double faults prediction stands at 4.11. The medium-paced hard court surface tends to balance serve statistics, allowing for a moderate number of aces, which aligns with Vacherot's strong serve index. His superior serving capabilities could lead to a higher ace count, while both players may face challenges with double faults, given their current fatigue levels.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Valentin Vacherot's combination of ranking, recent form, and superior serving and returning capabilities gives him a decisive edge against Rinky Hijikata. A key factor to monitor during the match will be Vacherot's ability to maintain his serving efficiency while capitalizing on any weaknesses in Hijikata's return game.

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