Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Matteo Arnaldi vs Roberto Bautista Agut Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi

Rank: #37
62%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #56
38%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Matteo Arnaldi

Ranking Trends

Matteo Arnaldi

  • Current Rank: #37 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #39 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #38 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #46 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #37 (2024-05-06)

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current Rank: #56 (2025-05-05)
  • 3 Months Ago: #52 (2025-02-03)
  • 6 Months Ago: #47 (2024-11-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #72 (2024-08-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #85 (2024-05-06)

Player Metrics

Matteo Arnaldi

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 1397.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1627.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.0
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 11.6
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 88.1

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 35.8
ELO Rating: 968.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 87.5

Recent Matches

Matteo Arnaldi
❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jack Draper (0-1) clay Madrid 77 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Frances Tiafoe (2-0) clay Madrid 97 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Damir Dzumhur (2-0) clay Madrid 104 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Novak Djokovic (2-0) clay Madrid 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Borna Coric (2-1) clay Madrid 167 min

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (0-2) clay Madrid 70 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-1) clay Madrid 137 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-2) clay Munich 152 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 68 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Brandon Nakashima (2-0) clay Monte Carlo 86 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Arnaldi
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the prestigious Masters 1000 tournament in Rome, Matteo Arnaldi is set to face Roberto Bautista Agut on the clay surface. With a probability of winning at 62.11%, Arnaldi is favored to take the match, while Bautista Agut holds a 37.89% chance. The predicted total number of games played is set at 22.0.

Match Analysis

Matteo Arnaldi, currently ranked 37, boasts a form index of 51.88 and an Elo rating of 1397.34. His surface strength index of 12.81 reflects a solid performance on clay, while his mean serve index at 97.07 indicates a strong serving capability. In contrast, Roberto Bautista Agut, ranked 56, has a significantly lower form index of 35.76 and an Elo rating of 968.74, suggesting recent struggles. His surface strength index is also lower at 8.85, and while his mean serve index at 95.75 is competitive, it falls short of Arnaldi's by over 5 points. Both players show no cumulative fatigue from recent matches, indicating readiness for the contest. Recent performances reveal a contrasting trajectory for both players. Arnaldi's last three matches saw him winning against Frances Tiafoe and Damir Dzumhur, showcasing his ability to perform well on clay. However, he faced defeat against Jack Draper. Conversely, Bautista Agut's recent outings include a loss to Alexander Zverev and a win against Jaume Munar, but he also suffered a defeat against Botic van de Zandschulp prior to that. This inconsistency highlights challenges for Bautista Agut as he steps onto the court.

Final Prediction

Matteo Arnaldi is positioned as the predicted winner due to his superior ranking, recent form, and better performance metrics, particularly in serve index. A key factor to observe will be how effectively Arnaldi can leverage his serving advantage, as this could significantly impact the match dynamics on the clay surface.