Sho Shimabukuro vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Shimabukuro comes mainly from his recent results by tournament level and his better hard-court fit. Those two factors together contribute roughly 15.3 percentage points to his advantage, supported by a higher Elo (1607.3 vs 1474.4) and a stronger surface strength index (16.88 vs 8.83). Shimabukuro sits at No. 94 with a form index of 35.27 and arrives fresh in Los Cabos with no accumulated tournament fatigue. Pacheco Mendez, ranked 320 with a form index of 34.84, also shows zero tournament fatigue but carries a lower surface score, which lowers his projection on hard courts. Serve and return metrics also tilt toward Shimabukuro, adding a further 4.7 points to the model’s probability. Both players display similar return indexes (Sho 89.71, Rodrigo 89.38) and comparable serving profiles (Sho 97.47 vs Rodrigo 93.78); neither gap exceeds five points, so expect a balanced baseline of service hold opportunities. Over their last three matches Shimabukuro has one win (over Tallon Griekspoor) and two recent losses on grass (to Tiafoe and Jaime Faria), while Pacheco Mendez arrives on a three-match losing run on hard courts, including straight-set exits in Acapulco and earlier Grand Slam rounds.