Basel Switzerland Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Sebastian Baez vs Reilly Opelka Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
36%
VS

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #62
64%
Predicted Games Played: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #43 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #43 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #33 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #28 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #26 (2024-10-21)

Reilly Opelka

  • Current Rank: #62 (2025-10-20)
  • 3 Months Ago: #74 (2025-07-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #103 (2025-04-21)
  • 9 Months Ago: #170 (2025-01-13)
  • 12 Months Ago: #297 (2024-10-21)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 22.0
ELO Rating: 932.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1595.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.4
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 89.7

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 46.6
ELO Rating: 1025.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1659.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 262.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.9
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.8
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 83.1

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Royer (0-2) hard Brussels 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Holger Rune (0-2) hard Shanghai 106 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-1) hard Shanghai 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-2) hard Tokio 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lloyd Harris (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Reilly Opelka
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Basel 83 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mika Brunold (2-1) hard Basel 179 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (0-2) hard Brussels 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (0-2) hard Shanghai 95 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Reilly Opelka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Sebastian Baez and Reilly Opelka at the ATP 500 tournament in Basel, Switzerland, is set to be a compelling encounter on hard courts. With Baez ranked 43rd and Opelka at 62nd, the predicted winner is Reilly Opelka with a probability of 64.50%, while Baez holds a 35.50% chance of victory. The match is expected to feature around 24 games in total.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez comes into the match with a form index of 22.04 and an Elo rating of 932.86, indicating he has struggled recently. His fatigue level is notably low at 0.0 minutes, suggesting he is fresh for this contest. Baez’s surface strength index stands at 8.37, while his mean serve index is 96.46 and mean return index is 89.66. However, his recent performances have been concerning, as he has lost his last two matches in straight sets, showcasing a lack of momentum. In contrast, Reilly Opelka enters the match with a higher form index of 46.56 and a significantly better Elo rating of 1025.45. Despite having a cumulative fatigue of 262.0 minutes from his matches in Basel, Opelka has shown resilience, winning both of his recent encounters in this tournament. His surface strength index is slightly better at 8.89, and he boasts a mean serve index of 97.17, which gives him a notable edge in serving, as the difference exceeds 5 points compared to Baez. His mean return index of 83.08 is also effective, though lower than Baez's return capability.

Final Prediction

Reilly Opelka’s superior recent form and serving strength provide him with a clear advantage heading into this match against Sebastian Baez. The key factor to watch will be Opelka's ability to leverage his powerful serve against Baez's return game, which could dictate the flow of the match. If Opelka maintains his serving performance, he is likely to secure a victory.