Sebastian Baez vs Vilius Gaubas: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Báez arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 50) with an Elo of 1669.5 and a form index of 46.21; he shows no tournament fatigue and a surface strength index of 39.87. Gaubas (No. 108) has an Elo of 1600.5 and a slightly lower form index (43.22) but a comparable surface strength (41.39). The serving and returning profiles show clear contrasts: Gaubas’s mean serve index (96.38) is substantially higher than Báez’s (68.98), a gap well over 5 points that marks him as the bigger server. Gaubas also posts a higher mean return index (92.69) versus Báez (81.17), so both players bring strong return tools but Gaubas holds the edge in raw serve and return metrics. Recent form paints complementary pictures. Báez has three recent tour matches on hard courts — a win over Jiri Lehecka before back-to-back losses to Daniil Medvedev and Adam Walton — suggesting mixed momentum away from clay. Gaubas’s last three matches were on clay in Santiago: two wins before a three-set loss to Yannick Hanfmann, with long match times (95–182 minutes) indicating good clay-court endurance and match toughness.