Umag Croatia Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Stan Wawrinka Prediction

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Rank: #223
39%
VS

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #156
61%
Predicted Games Played: 22.0
Predicted Winner: Stan Wawrinka

Ranking Trends

Alvaro Guillen Meza

  • Current Rank: #223 (2025-07-14)
  • 3 Months Ago: #205 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #270 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #264 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #229 (2024-07-22)

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current Rank: #156 (2025-07-14)
  • 3 Months Ago: #158 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #156 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #169 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #109 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Alvaro Guillen Meza

Form Index: 42.3
ELO Rating: 223.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1520.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 217.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.5
Clay: 2.1
Grass: 1.6
Serve Rating: 90.9
Return Rating: 84.7

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 12.5
ELO Rating: 407.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1565.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.1
Clay: 3.4
Grass: 3.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 85.4

Recent Matches

Alvaro Guillen Meza
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luka Mikrut (2-0) clay Umag 85 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Blanchet (2-1) clay Umag 132 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Felipe Meligeni Alves (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Andrea Collarini (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Stan Wawrinka
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Shevchenko (0-2) clay Gstaad 74 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (0-2) clay Barcelona 71 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 147 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (1-2) clay Bucharest 159 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alvaro Guillen Meza
vs
0
Stan Wawrinka
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Alvaro Guillen Meza and Stan Wawrinka at the Umag tournament in Croatia marks a key Round of 32 clash on clay. With Wawrinka favored to win, he has a probability of 60.88% compared to Guillen Meza's 39.12%. The predicted total number of games played in this encounter is 22.0.

Match Analysis

Currently, Alvaro Guillen Meza ranks 223rd, while Stan Wawrinka holds a higher ranking at 156th. Guillen Meza has shown a form index of 42.32, which is significantly better than Wawrinka's low form index of 12.48. In terms of Elo ratings, Wawrinka's 407.22 greatly outmatches Guillen Meza's 223.57, indicating a disparity in overall performance and experience. Fatigue could play a role, as Guillen Meza has accumulated 217 minutes on court in the current tournament, while Wawrinka enters this match fresh, with no cumulative fatigue. On clay, Wawrinka's surface strength index of 3.37 also surpasses Guillen Meza's 2.14, suggesting he is more adept on this surface. In their recent performances, Guillen Meza has had a stronger showing in the Umag tournament, winning his last two matches against Luka Mikrut and Ugo Blanchet, while previously falling to Felipe Meligeni Alves at Wimbledon. Conversely, Wawrinka has struggled in his last three outings, losing all matches, including recent defeats at Gstaad and Roland Garros. His failure to win any sets in these matches raises concerns about his current form.

Final Prediction

Wawrinka's experience and superior overall ratings provide him with a clear edge in this matchup. However, a key factor to watch will be his ability to overcome his recent struggles, as any further dip in performance could open the door for Guillen Meza to capitalize on his momentum.